European market

The prospect of taxation on European exports to the USA, announced by the American president at a rate of 25%, also brings a new element of uncertainty to the commodities market. In response to this new communication, the European Union announced an immediate response in case of deployment. Following these announcements, many questions remain unanswered about the products concerned on the one hand and the possible deployment schedule on the other. In terms of currencies, after a recovery in firmness in recent weeks, the euro was falling against the dollar and returning to below the level of 1.05.

In cereals, the downward movement in wheat prices intensified yesterday, pushing the prices of the nearby March 2025 maturity to close at 223 €/t. This contract thus returns to its lowest level since last December, a few weeks before its maturity. The downward movement also spread to the following maturities. This decline thus pushes French origins to regain attractiveness for the export market, an activity that needs to be revitalized in this second part of the campaign.

The rapeseed market, meanwhile, rose slightly yesterday, without suffering from the downward movement in energy prices. The rebound movement in canola prices in Canada, after the recent easing, also provides an element of support. The price level of palm oil remains high, a direct consequence of the current tense situation in Malaysia, and thus supports the European market.

American market

Uncertainty surrounding the new threats of import taxation from the American president introduces a new factor of uncertainty in the American market, with the risk of reciprocity from the affected countries. The deployment of taxes with Canada and Mexico, which is announced for the beginning of March, will clarify the affected products and the real risks for the imports of agricultural products into the USA from its two neighbors. Soybean and corn exporters are obviously very attentive to possible tariff retaliations that could follow on US origins.

Doubts are dissipating over the real impact of the cold spell encountered in recent weeks. Wheat prices, both for the old and new crop, are declining. The May 2025 contract continues its downward movement started since the beginning of the week and is now below $5.80/bu, thus gradually approaching its lowest level since early February.

The correction movement is also continuing in corn, whose prices have posted a new decline for the fourth consecutive session. In response to the recent price decline, the volumes of new weekly export sales in corn will be communicated today. For the new crop, the prospects of an increase in American corn acreage also bring a factor of easing. The USDA's first estimates will be communicated today during its annual forum.

The progress of harvests in Brazil continues to bring a factor of price easing in Chicago, a movement that began since the beginning of the month. The prices of the May 2025 contract are now flirting with the threshold of $10.40/bu, their lowest level in over a month. For the new crop, despite the expected decline in acreage next year in the USA, the prices of the November 2025 contract are also trading below the level of $10.50/bu.

Black Sea market

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