European market

Wheat prices continue to cautiously recover. French wheat has benefited from some small export successes since the end of last week. The May 2025 Euronext wheat contract has regained the 220 €/t threshold, which was broken in last Thursday’s slump. It mainly follows the rebound observed in Chicago, reinforced by the reduction in planted areas reported in the latest USDA report.

Weather-wise, the situation is mixed. Beneficial rains are sweeping across the entire Black Sea region. Europe is split in two, with dry conditions in the north and wetter conditions in the south. U.S. wheat crops are also divided, with HRW (Hard Red Winter wheat) receiving little rain, while SRW (Soft Red Winter wheat) risks flooding under this week’s deluge.

Corn for the June 2025 contract has once again managed to hold its support level at 210 €/t, just as May 2025 corn on the Chicago exchange preserved its support at $4.50/b yesterday.

Rapeseed, for its part, has reversed course and resumed its upward trend. After starting the week with a correction, the rebound has been intense, with a gap of no less than 20 €/t between yesterday’s highest and lowest trading levels. The 530 €/t resistance zone is once again in sight for the May 2025 Euronext contract.

American market

The start of the month and quarter encourages investors to return to buying grains in Chicago. Wheat, corn, and soybeans all closed higher together. Yesterday’s USDA report is not unrelated to this collective performance.

Wheat is concerned about a larger-than-expected decline in acreage in the U.S. for 2025, down to just 45.35 million acres. Soybeans, with their 2025 acreage expected to be at its lowest level since 2025, face the same situation. Soybean seeds also share the enthusiasm of soybean oil, as negotiations are underway for an increase in biodiesel mandates in the U.S.

Corn, on the other hand, paradoxically welcomes the fact that its acreage increase to 95.3 million acres is not as strong as the most ambitious operators had feared, and therefore not as bearish for the market.

The rescue of the 4.50 $/bushel support level for the May 2025 CME corn contract is seen as crucial by many traders. The same applies to soybeans, which managed to maintain their major support level of 10 $/bushel last Friday.

Traders are now waiting to learn more following this April 2nd, which U.S. President Donald Trump has called “Liberation Day,” as the new tariffs set to be announced will be, according to him, significant for the U.S. economy.

Black Sea market

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