European market
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The European markets are calm at the end of this week. While Donald Trump's statements had recently animated all the stock exchanges, his speech delivered in Davos helped to calm the spirits. However, many uncertainties remain around the imperialist ambitions of the American president, which could again generate a geopolitical risk premium. At this stage, it is mainly the dollar that suffers, which explains the return of the euro/dollar parity above 1.1750.
The weakness of the dollar is weighing on the competitiveness of French offers. The second half of the campaign promises to be particularly competitive given the volumes still available from the main exporters. French operators can nevertheless boast of a good dynamic of loads in the ports. This applies in particular to barley, which, as a result, retains a remarkable physical premium compared to wheat on the port of Rouen.
Rapeseed, for its part, halted its progression approaching €475/t on Euronext's May contract, but nevertheless retains a certain firmness. The rebound initiated around € 450/t remains relevant in a context of concerns about the destruction of vetegable oil storages, transport or processing equipment in Ukraine. The risk remaining present, the prices retain a bit of firmness.
American market
The US markets are showing a certain dynamism, like wheat which was back above $5.15/bushel on the March contact. The general atmosphere, however, remains marked by caution in an unstable geopolitical context, where Donald Trump's statements are agitating both financial markets and currencies. On the ground, on the other hand, the cold snap announced in several US wheat production areas is being closely monitored, while the snow cover remains poor in places.
On the soybean complex, the USDA announced a new exceptional sale of 192,350 t to an unknown destination. At the same time, the US administration confirmed the quality of relations with their Chinese counterparts as well as the continuation of trade flows between the two partners.
All of these elements also offer financial operators arguments to reallocate part of their assets towards agricultural raw materials, providing general support to the market. In the medium term, the balance between soybean and corn prices will be closely monitored, with February being decisive in the construction of the minimum price guaranteed by American insurance.
Black Sea market
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