European market
Wheat prices fell yesterday, despite the easing of the euro against the dollar, which fell back below the 1.08 level. The conclusions of negotiations led by the USA between Ukrainian and Russian authorities seem sufficient to reassure some market players, particularly American ones, in the short term.
However, several participants remain skeptical about the announcements, especially as the progress primarily concerns the security of maritime circulation for agricultural goods in the Black Sea, an activity that is already in place. In fact, export traffic, both from Russia and Ukraine, has seen significant volumes since the start of the campaign, despite existing challenges. On Euronext, the price of May 2025 wheat is trading around 220 €/ton, near its lowest level in seven months. Currently, the price of the nearby contract is trading almost at parity with the next contract for September 2025.
The decline in maize prices is less pronounced. The price of the June 2025 contract, after three consecutive sessions of decline, is at 213 €/ton. European importers are paying close attention to ongoing negotiations about tariffs on American agricultural products, which could soon be implemented in response to U.S. announcements. For now, imports into Europe, from all origins combined, exceed last year's levels, with incomplete data from the European Commission showing over 15.3 Mt since the start of the 2024/2025 campaign.
Only the rapeseed market showed an upward trend. Prices rebounded after the sharp correction seen since the beginning of the month.
American market
American operators seem reassured following yesterday's announcement of an agreement regarding hostilities in the Black Sea. Although, for now, the hoped-for ceasefire appears far from being achievable, this news has contributed to easing prices, even though commercial ship traffic in the Black Sea was already operational.
Wheat and corn prices in Chicago have thus recorded further declines under selling pressure from funds. Wheat prices fell below 5.45 €/bu, approaching their lowest level since the beginning of the month and, consequently, their campaign low. Corn for May 2025, on the other hand, erased last week's rebound and returned to trading below 4.60 €/bu. Export volumes will be worth monitoring due to the current attractiveness of American export prices. For new crops, the successful start to planting in the U.S. is also contributing to lower prices for longer-term contracts.
The completion of soybean harvests in South America confirms an increase in available volumes. In the U.S., ongoing negotiations over trade tariffs with various historical trading partners remain an important factor to watch for many agricultural products. Just days before the release of U.S. quarterly stock reports, soybean prices for the May 2025 contract in Chicago are now testing the 10 €/bu support level.
Black Sea market
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