European market

The rapeseed market shows further progress, gradually erasing the correction recorded at the beginning of the month. Prices on the Euronext futures market for the May 2025 contract have now climbed back above 520 €/t, moving above several moving averages, including the 100-day moving average. The rise in vegetable oil prices thus provides an element of firmness amid ongoing uncertainty related to the introduction of new import taxes by the USA and, reciprocally, by its trading partners.

Following the American market and a negotiation close to reaching an agreement on maritime navigation in the Black Sea between Russia and Ukraine, cereal prices experienced a further decline yesterday, both for the current and upcoming crop. On Euronext, the May 2025 wheat contract prices fell, now close to the lowest levels traded last August. Transaction volumes were predominantly concentrated on the nearby contract, with over 52,000 lots traded yesterday, out of a total volume of more than 101,000 lots across all maturities.

New crop wheat prices also retreated, reflecting the new production estimate by the European Commission for soft wheat at 126.5 Mt for the next season.

In corn, mirroring the downward movement of other cereals, prices also declined for both the current and upcoming crop. The European Commission projects an increase in corn production potential for the next season to 65 Mt and therefore expects import requirements to decrease to 18.3 Mt for 2025/2026 compared to the current season.

American market

Wheat prices in Chicago remain under pressure due to new sales by funds, a movement initiated by the prospect of the implementation of the security agreement for the transport of goods in the Black Sea. The nearby contract for SRW is now trading below 5.30 $/bu, hitting a new campaign low. Weekly export sales figures also show disappointing activity over the past week, with a total barely exceeding 100,000 tons due to some cancellations.

The weekly export sales volume for corn, exceeding 1.3 Mt, was not enough to support prices. Consequently, prices in Chicago fell yesterday for the fifth consecutive week. The settlement price of the May 2025 contract returned to its lowest level in nearly three months. The rapid progress of corn planting in the U.S. also weighs on new crop prices, where the December 2025 contract is trading at levels close to those of the May 2025 contract.

Despite relatively low export sales this week, the soybean complex posted gains yesterday, driven by a sharp rebound in soybean oil prices. This upward movement supported seed prices, which bounced back from the 10 $/bu support level, and to a lesser extent, soybean meal prices.

At the end of the week, traders will now look to adjust their positions ahead of the release of U.S. quarterly stock figures. These numbers will be announced on Monday by the USDA.

Black Sea market

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