European market
Highly anticipated, the FED meeting held yesterday, December 18 in the United States did not disappoint in terms of impact on the market. If the US Central Bank's key interest rate has indeed been lowered by -25 points to 4.25-4.5% as expected, it is the harsh tone of its president Jerome Powell that has pressured all financial markets.
Judged as a new turning point by the operators, the FED is now forecasting a rise in US inflation over 2025 and is now only considering 2 rate cuts of 25 points next year against 4 initially envisaged. It didn't take more to propel the index dollar to a 2-year high and make the US stock market plunge by -3% on the S&P500. The raw materials sector is also suffering.
The European grains should find the support of a euro/dollar again falling sharply at 1.0380. That's a 2-year low.
While the tight EU balance sheet allowed wheat prices to remain stable yesterday on Euronext, rapeseed posted a strong fall. The February 2025 contract loses -16.75 €/t closing at 520.75 € / t. In addition to profit-taking after the strong surge of the last 10 days and due to a gradual resumption of navigation on the Moselle, the rapeseed market suffers from a general decline in the oilseed complex. Palm oil is experiencing a very strong correction in Kuala Lumpur. The soybean complex is also largely retreating on Chicago while canola is following suit in Winnipeg.
Note on the wheat market the return of Tunisia to purchases today for 100,000 t of soft wheat and 100,000 t of durum wheat. Algeria would have bought around 400,000 t of durum wheat yesterday.
FranceAgriMer yesterday published the following forecast stocks for France as of June 30, 2025:
Soft wheat 2.869mn t against 2.792mn t last month
Barley 1,375mn t against 1,381mn t last month
Corn 2,680mn t against 2,362mn t last month
American market
The Chicago market is under bearish pressure both in the face of the surge in the dollar index to the highest level in 2 years and under the influence of the sharp fall in the US stock markets. The funds were massively selling last night on Chicago. At $9.50/bushel, soybeans are plunging to their lowest level since August 2020.
The soybean complex is evolving in bearish trend in a context of arriving record soybean harvest in South America. The uncertainty that currently weighs on the biofuel sector in the United States is added to the bearish tone of the moment.
In a domino effect, corn, with stronger fundamentals, is falling under the influence of soybeans while wheat is falling in the wake of corn.
Black Sea market
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