European market

The geopolitical situation remains confused in the Middle East and is still evolving according to Donald Trump's statements and the responses provided by Iran. The crude oil market, however, incorporates the prospect of a close agreement with prices falling to $86 /barrel in New York this Friday morning. On the currency side, the euro/dolar is displayed this Friday at 1.1560 after a day of high volatility yesterday which saw it sail from 1.1500 to 1.1590. In the background, the ECB recently raised its rates by 0.25 point in the hope of containing the inflation caused by the shock of the war in the Middle East.
The grain market has also focused on the publication of the USDA's WASDE report. As is often the case in June, this report moves the lines a little.
In wheat, global production in 2026/27 increased by +1 Mt to 820 Mt while global demand rose by +1.4 Mt to 824.6 Mt. With an increase of +0.8Mt in beginning stocks in addition to 280 Mt, the final stocks for 2026/27 are only slightly increasing compared to last month by +0.4 Mt to 275.4 Mt.
Despite good conditions in southern Europe and the Balkans, European wheat production was left unchanged at 136 Mt by the USDA. The favourable weather for winter wheat in the Black Sea has led the USDA to raise the production of Russian wheat in 2026 by +2 Mt to 88 Mt and Ukrainian wheat by +0.5 Mt to 23.5 Mt. At the same time, Australian production was reduced by -2 Mt to 28 Mt.
In corn, the situation in 2026/27 is getting heavier than in wheat, with a final stock that rises from 309.2 Mt to 312.4 Mt. This results from an increase in the beginning stock to 334.7 Mt and an increase in production by +6 Mt to 1595.5 Mt while global demand gains +3.4 Mt compared to last month. 
In soybeans, the USDA is almost identically renewing its forecast balance sheet for 2026/27 with a ending stock that is gaining only +0.1 Mt at 124.9 Mt while the beginning stock is 125.5 Mt.

American market

The session was animated by the American announcements which, after announcing a renewed military actions against Iran, reassured by a change of position on the progress of the negotiations still underway concerning the evolution of the situation in the Persian Gulf. 
In terms of market fundamentals, the USDA published yesterday its new estimates for the 2025/26 campaign and make some adjustments.
In addition, no noticeable changes were observed compared to last month. For the 2025/26 season, the size of the carry-over stock is almost unchanged, expected at 54.48 Mt. On the other hand, domestic consumption in the USA is taking a step back with a decrease in activity towards the ethanol outlet compared to the latest forecasts. However, this decrease in activity is offset by the prospect of an improvement in export activity by the end of the campaign. In the new harvest, the production prospects remain unchanged at 406.29 Mt according to the USDA. Despite everything, corn prices, both in harvest 2025 and 2026, showed a new decline yesterday in Chicago, marking new contract lows for the July 2026 contract, now under $4.15/bu, and under $4.40/bu on the December 2026 contract.
Wheat prices changed little yesterday, both for HRW and SRW contracts in Chicago, where the September 2026 contract is trading respectively above $6.40/bu for the first and around $6/bu for the second. The decrease in production estimates in the USA is confirmed with a decrease in yield from 47.5 bu/acres to 47 bu/acres. American production is now announced at 42.01 Mt by the USDA against 54.01 Mt last year. The forecast stocks are down, unsurprisingly, to 20.25 Mt for the coming 2026/27 campaign.
In soybeans, prices marked a new decline in the session, erasing the rebound of the previous day and repositioning close to the lows observed since the beginning of the week. The size of the carry-over stocks for the 2025/26 campaign remains at 9.25 Mt and no change has been noted by the USDA in its estimates of the 2026/27 balance sheet items, where the  US stock is still expected at 8.44 Mt in the perspective of an increase in exports.

Black Sea market

Click here to request full access to the AgriMarkets report to find out more about the Black Sea region, and follow price trends in Russia on a daily basis.