European market

The cereal market evolved little yesterday consolidating on the current levels. The end of the winter will allow us to better measure the impact of the winter on the crops condition, mainly in the Black Sea basin. If in Ukraine it seems that this condition is satisfactory, doubts remain about the central region of Russia. France's wheat origin is still uncompetitive, particularly in relation to its European neighbours.

On the international scene, China, for the second consecutive day, contracted a large volume of corn from the USA of 1.224 Mt yesterday. Algeria is buying 40,000 t of feed barley. Tunisia has launched a tender for 42,000 t of durum wheat, 117,000 t of soft wheat and 75,000 t of feed barley.

Oilseed prices fell sharply yesterday after reaching record levels at the end of last week. The canola and soybean prices were down, weighing on rapeseed for both the 2020 and 2021 crops. Palm oil is also losing ground amid rising US crude oil stocks this week.

The dollar lost some ground trading at 1.1960 against the euro and 73.80 against the rouble. Crude oil was little changed at 64.20 $/b in New York.

American market

Beneficial rains came to the USA and are expected to continue, particularly in Kansas, starting to depress prices in Chicago.

Corn is supported by two recent contracts of over 1 Mt each with China. However, rains in Argentina are limiting the bullish impact. In Brazil, fears remain about corn planting with rains still in the forecast.

Argentina's agriculture minister yesterday reported that farmers have already sold 11.89 Mt of soybeans out of an estimated 45 Mt to be harvested. 

Funds were net buyers yesterday for 2,500 lots of corn and net sellers for 5,500 lots of soybeans and 4,500 lots of wheat.

Black Sea market

While many doubts remain whether the floating tax on wheat exports will be lifted for the coming season, the Ministry of Agriculture reports that winter crop conditions are worse than last year. According to the data of the regional agro-industrial bodies, almost a quarter of the crops are in unsatisfactory condition. The situation could improve after the snow melts. At present, 76.5% of crops are in good and satisfactory condition.

The assessments proposed by Roshydromet (meteorological body) are more optimistic, indicating a percentage of only 7-9% of crops in poor condition.