European market

The euro/dollar parity plays a key role in the competition currently unfolding on the international stage. Indeed, the pair was recently trading at the resistance level of 1.1650 before retreating toward 1.1600. It is worth noting that it was hovering around 1.1500 just a month ago, which was more favorable to European export offers.

At the start of this week, global wheat prices are eroding, with Russian origins down nearly $2/t, around $225.75/t, while Argentine wheat slipped nearly $1/t to $209/t. Around $224/t FOB Rouen, French wheat is trying to hold its ground but is mainly finding buyers among its European neighbors. The delay in Ukraine’s corn harvest is forcing eurozone buyers to revise their plans, which supports French origins.

On the international scene, Algeria has returned, launching a new tender to contract wheat. Although competitive on paper, French offers still fail to gain traction in Algiers due to diplomatic reasons. International buyers are also monitoring the quality of Argentine wheat, as the country’s exceptional yield raises doubts about the average protein rate.

In the Southern Hemisphere, ABARES has kicked off the publication season by revising upward its production estimates in Australia:

• Wheat: 35.6 Mt versus 33.8 Mt in September (37 Mt according to Argus)

• Barley: 15.7 Mt versus 14.6 Mt in September (15.87 Mt according to Argus)

• Canola: 7.2 Mt versus 6.4 Mt in September (7.69 Mt according to Argus)

For 2026, Argus has published the results of its crop tour in Russia, with a production estimate of 86.5 Mt, down from 88.4 Mt last year, mainly due to a slight reduction in acreage to 26.83 million hectares.

In oilseeds, beyond the new Australian projections, rapeseed is struggling to break through the resistance of €485/t on the February Euronext contract, giving up ground to return toward its support level of €475/t.

American market

U.S. prices remain hesitant and struggle to take a clear direction. The numerous publications at the start of this month (Abares, Conab, USDA, StatsCan, MPOB) call for caution.

The U.S. government continues to catch up by releasing export sales for the week of October 23. The momentum remains decent but in line with expectations: 500,000 t of wheat, 1.80 Mt of corn, and 1.45 Mt of soybeans. Market participants are now turning to export inspections, hoping for a stronger presence from China, which has not yet materialized. The figures are as follows:

• Wheat: 385,000 t, below expectations

• Soybeans: 920,000 t, in line with expectations

• Corn: 1.42 Mt, above expectations

Uncertainties remain numerous, particularly regarding upcoming adjustments in global balance sheets where geopolitics plays a major role. The momentum in U.S. soybean exports has drawn attention, but announcements now need to be confirmed by actual shipments. The volumes promised by China have still not been reached, leaving doubts about the final figure and prompting financial operators to reduce their risk exposure.

Black Sea market

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