European market
The financial markets were not surprised yesterday by the announcement of Jerome Powell to see his main key interest rate mark a decline. The President of the FED has announced a decline of a quarter of a point and also opened up a prospect of further rate cuts in the USA in the coming months. The euro briefly exceeded the 1.19 level against the dollar at the end of the day, before falling back around 1.18, marking a slight decline compared to the previous day. This firmness of the euro did not weigh on grain prices on Euronext where corn and wheat ended the session slightly higher.
In terms of grains balance sheets, FranceAgriMer yesterday communicated its estimates of carry-over stocks for the 2025/2026 campaign. Unsurprisingly, the volume of soft wheat production has been increased to 33.29 Mt in France. Faced with the available volumes, the consumption items have been adjusted upwards with a potential export to third countries now expected at 7.85 Mt and an increase in domestic use. In the end, the size of the carry-over stock is estimated at the end of June 2026 at 3.64 Mt according to FAM, i.e. a slight decrease compared to last month's estimate but still at a historically high level. In barley, the stock is announced to be rising and would now exceed 2.1 Mt. In corn, despite the announced decrease in production, the forecast stocks change little compared to the 2024/2025 season with a carry-over volume exceeding 2 Mt again.
In rapeseed, prices marked a slight decline yesterday in the wake of other oilseeds. Canadian canola, after the confirmation by StatsCan of an expected harvest this year at 20 Mt, marked a decline and erases the rebound of the previous day.
American market
Prices fell yesterday in Chicago, after the first profit-taking with the recent rise and the levels reached the day before. The first cut in the key interest rate announced by the FED did not lead to an acceleration of the decline of the dollar, because the market had already anticipated this decision.
The strongest downward correction was observed on soybean oil where the December 2025 contract in Chicago lost almost -2.7% at the close. This morning, it is trading at $51.50/lb, returning to the levels of last Thursday. Uncertainty remains high regarding the EPA's upcoming decisions, once the consultation on the reallocation of biofuel incorporation obligations has been completed. Market players will therefore have to wait before having clear rules and an official view of the new additional volumes to be incorporated. The drop in vegetable oil prices also weighed on soybean prices.
The testing of certain technical levels has also led to a decline in corn and wheat. Yesterday, Statistics Canada revised up its estimate of total wheat production by +1 Mt, to 36.6 Mt. From now on, American operators will closely follow the weekly export sales figures published by the USDA at the end of the week, given the recent rebound in prices.
Black Sea market
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