European market
Rapeseed session on Euronext February 2025 contract was quite volatile yesterday on the eve of its expiration today. This contract has registered the highest level of price for the 2024 harvest with a pic of 555.50 € / t on December 13th, a few days after the destruction of a lock gate in Müden in Germany which blocked navigation on the Moselle. This led Euronext to suspend the French ports on the Moselle from the delivery of the rapeseed contract for this February 2025 contract. After intense work and the change of the damaged door, it is this Saturday, February 1 that navigation will resume with the test passage of the first tourist boat.
The May 2025 contract is now in place until the end of April to represent the 2024 harvest prices. Yesterday, it could hold up the important support of €505-510/t with a closing increase of +€4.25/t to €516.75/t.
For their part, grains continue to gain firmness on Euronext. Wheat is following its counterpart in Chicago and thanks to funds' buying-back their short positions. Corn on Euronext follows wheat trend.
The recent excessive rains in France on fields already saturated with water are worrying for the winter crops condition. The next issue of FranceAgriMer's grain report on crop conditions is eagerly awaited. It should be published in 2 weeks on February 14th.
American market
Donald Trump announced last night his intention to implement customs duties up to 25% on products imported into the United States from Mexico and Canada from this Saturday, February 1, 2025. This casts a great uncertainty on the commercial relations of the United States with its neighbors and worries the grain market. In addition, Mexico is one of the very first importers of US corn while the United States imports 96% of Canadian canola oil. There is no doubt that the negotiations between the countries concerned will be activated today and that extreme volatility in prices will be observed according to the announcements made.
The USDA published yesterday its latest weekly export sales figures for the 2024-25 harvest in the United States :
Wheat 456,100 t
Corn 1.358mn t
Soybeans 438,000 t.
In addition to the good export sales, US wheat rose yesterday thanks to funds' buyin-back their short position on concerns related to the last wave of frost on the US Great Plains about ten days ago. The approach of the export quota for Russian wheat to February 15 is also animating the discussions in Chicago.
The funds, unlike for wheat, returned to the sale yesterday in corn and soybeans. In addition to the traditional month-end profit-taking, caution is set amid the risk of a trade war between the United States and its main trading partners. The water deficit that persists in Argentina, on the other hand, remains a support for corn and soybean prices.
Black Sea market
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