European market

Markets pushed the improvement in relations between Iran and the United States into the background, even though it had led to lower oil prices. After falling below the 80 $/barrel threshold yesterday, crude oil suggested a broad decline across commodities. In the end, however, that was not the case, as traders had been overly optimistic at the end of last week about a recovery in flows in another part of the world: the Black Sea.

The successive announcements from the Kremlin and Volodymyr Zelensky regarding the possibility of opening new export routes triggered a significant decline in prices. Yet the reality is quite different, and tensions remain palpable in this key region for global grain trade. While July was marked by relatively subdued international demand, activity generally accelerates in August, which could reshuffle global trade flows. In addition, storage remains a major concern in Ukraine, where silo capacity is not unlimited. The upcoming corn harvest will therefore force storage operators to make major adjustments.

On the export front, Algeria has returned to the market with a tender to purchase milling wheat. At a time when Russia, one of its main suppliers, is no longer fully able to guarantee its flows, the OAIC's positioning will be particularly interesting to monitor. For now, French origins are still not welcome, but international tensions could force buyers to show greater agility and flexibility.

Meanwhile, rapeseed managed to rebound from its technical support level and move back close to the 525 €/t area on the Euronext Nov contract, thereby erasing the losses recorded at the end of last week.

American market

U.S. markets moved in two phases during the first trading session of the week. After opening lower in the wake of the decline in energy markets, fundamentals regained the upper hand, ultimately allowing contracts to close in positive territory. Beyond the persistent tensions in the Black Sea and the still-limited flows from this strategic region, traders were also closely monitoring developments in U.S. crop conditions.

As every week, the USDA released its crop progress report:

• Corn: 61 % rated good to excellent, down from 63 % the previous week.
• Soybeans: 63 % rated good to excellent, unchanged week-on-week.
• Spring wheat: 55 % rated good to excellent, up 2 points from the previous week.

It is also worth noting that 86 % of the spring wheat area has now been harvested.

The international scene was once again marked by large flash soybean sales, including 488,000 t to China and 136,150 t to an unknown destination, confirming the strong momentum in U.S. exports seen in recent weeks.

Export inspections came in as follows:

• Wheat: 335,313 t
• Corn: 1.9 mn t
• Soybeans: 343,941 t

Black Sea market

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