European market

Grain prices showed a slight increase yesterday after the decline observed since the beginning of the week. Prices have also adjusted to the downward movement of the euro against the dollar observed yesterday, returning below 1.1900 and now evolving above 1.1850. The employment situation in the USA supported this movement, with favourable figures published yesterday, in a more general context of tension around the evolution of trade between the USA and Iran.
In terms of fundamentals in France, in this second half of the campaign, FranceAgriMer is revising up its stock estimates for the 2025-26 wheat harvest. The forecast stock rises again above 3 Mt, now incorporating a less optimistic assumption of volume exported to non-EU countries, now hoped for at 7.2 Mt against 7.5 Mt last month. To date, this decline in export activity cannot be compensated for by upward adjustments in consumption for animal feed and intra-Community demand.
The corn stock is also revised up slightly to 2,193 Mt, returning to a level slightly higher than last year to a three-year high. Only durum wheat and barley stocks are down compared to last month, with barley stocks at 1.36 Mt. Although still up compared to recent years, stocks are adjusting in direct connection with the improvement in export activity observed since the beginning of the season to non-EU countries.
Oilseed prices made little progress yesterday. The May 2026 rapeseed contract on Euronext marks the step towards an important resistance zone.

American market

Soybean prices in Chicago rose yesterday. The March 2026 contract closed the session at its highest level since last December 5th. The bullish momentum is still observed in the night session, with prices that have risen above $11.40/bu on the same contract. The heavy rains currently observed in Brazil are causing difficulties and slowdowns logistically during this harvest period. These elements offer support to the US market, already buoyed by the announced prospect of new soybean sales to China by the end of the campaign. The firmness of seed prices has also provided support to meal prices, which are approaching the highest levels since the beginning of the year. On the other hand, soybean oil prices, which have shown a strong upward acceleration and marked new contract highs, are now testing points of resistance. The May 2026 contract is approaching the level of c$ 58.00/lb.
Corn prices are marking a decline despite new exceptional sales reported yesterday by the USDA for a volume of more than 230,000 t. US operators remain vigilant about the evolution of ethanol stocks, which are increasing compared to the previous week.
The price of wheat on the SRW contract has risen above $5.30/bu on the upcoming March 2026 contract, after approaching the $5.40/bu level in yesterday's session. The prices are approaching the highs of the month, motivated by some funds' buying-backs and an export activity still supported due to a weak dollar. The dollar index has also been showing for three weeks at a level equivalent to its lows last July.

Black Sea market

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