European market
European corn reached a new contract high on Euronext yesterday. It is enough to look at the evolution of the prices to deduce the weather for the next few days. Because of the lack of announced rains, the crop conditions are not intended to improve, enough to undermine the potential.
The recent hot weather is also weighing on winter grain yields potential. While the barley harvest is progressing rapidly, disappointment is common in the plains, with kernel's results below the standards. Producers are waiting for confirmations in wheat, while doubt persists about the impact of the weather in recent weeks. Depending on the regions and the stages, heterogeneity should, once again, be in order.
On the international scene, eyes are also turning to Russia, where the excellent potential leaves room for doubts. A rainy weather is raising concerns among local operators. At the same time, the problems of access to fuel are not trivial and force producers to adapt as far as possible.
If the period is favourable for the weather market, the macroeconomics remains a factor under surveillance. While crude oil remains under pressure following the recent declarations between Iran and the United States, it is now the euro/dollar parity that focuses attention. Indeed, the pair is back below the symbolic level of 1.14, offering a boost in competitiveness to French origins in search of new outlets.
American market
US markets started the week in the red, with many adjustments ahead of the reports expected today. StatsCan publishes its report with new areas estimates. A focus will be on spring wheat, which plantings have been slow to set up because of weather conditions. Canola will also be in the spotlight, while the global balance sheet remains generally tense.
Subsequently, it is the quarterly report of the USDA which will act as a conductor, with in particular the figures of the areas in corn and soybeans. The history shows that the American organization regularly surprises operators and foils the predictions. With the soaring prices of fertilizers, analysts remain perplexed by the latest published estimates, considered too optimistic.
The harvest is continuing in the US, with 48% of the winter wheat harvested now, an increase of only 8 points compared to last week. On the side of spring crops, the conditions are as follows :
Corn: 67% for good to excellent, compared to 68% last week
Soybeans: 65% for good to excellent, compared to 66% last week
Spring wheat: 59% for good to excellent, compared to 54% last week.
Finally, we note a new exceptional sale of 136,000 tons of soybeans for an unknown destination for the next season.
Black Sea market
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