European market
Although the heat wave has moved and widened to a large part of Europe over the past weekend and the 2-week weather outlook remains warm and dry, all prices fell back on Euronext on Friday. Weekend profit-taking, a rebound in the euro/dollar, crude oil falling below $70/barrel in New York, selling pressure on Chicago, the fall of the ruble vs the US dollar and downward pressure on Russian wheat, very good echoes of winter barley yields around the Black Sea: there is no shortage of arguments to justify this disappointment.
However, on the ground, the situation remains very sensitive. What is harvested often disappoints, and above all, what is on the ground worries. The storms of the weekend in France caused severe damage in places while the accompanying rains were only very local and heterogeneous.
Corn is at the forefront of this climate shock. It resists the decline more than wheat or rapeseed. The November 2026 contract, which closed last week at €221/t on Euronext, is now showing €12/t above December 2026 wheat. Recall that just two weeks ago, November 2026 corn closed at €4.5/t under December 2026 wheat.
The state of crops is deteriorating in France according to FranceAgriMer's cereal report published on Friday on the basis of a survey on June 22:
Soft wheat: 74% for "good to excellent" down -2 points on the week and against 68% last year to date
Durum wheat: 58% for "good to excellent" down by -6 points over the week and against 71% last year
Winter barley: 71% for "good to excellent", down by -2 points over the week and against 65% last year
Spring barley: 63% for "'good to excellent", down by -4 points over the week and against 67% last year
Corn: 76% for "good to excellent", down -8 points on the week and against 81% last year.
American market
The generalized decline was observed Friday evening in closing on Chicago. The selling pressure from the funds remains strong and adds up to the traditional weekend profit-taking.
The advance of the winter wheat harvest in the United States is weighing on US prices, as is the downward trend in place on Black Sea wheat prices. In corn and soybeans, the decline in prices remained much more limited than in wheat, given the prospect of warmer and drier weather in the west of the Corn Belt for the coming weeks.
The market should remain wait-and-see at the beginning of the week while waiting for the USDA report this Tuesday, June 30th on quarterly stocks in the United States and especially on the planting carried out this spring. Corn and soybean areas are the subject of bitter discussions among market operators who are waiting for the USDA to close the debate, which could only happen during the next report on September 30.
Black Sea market
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