European market
The upward trend in the euro/dollar exchange rate is confirmed, with the rate now exceeding 1.1750. The dollar continues to fall against the euro, reaching its lowest level since September 2021. This renewed strength of the euro is pushing down commodity prices. This downward movement coincides with the European Commission’s upward revisions of production forecasts across Europe. For corn, the Commission now anticipates a harvest of 64.6mn t, with imports for the upcoming marketing season projected at 18.3mn t. A similar upward revision has been announced for barley. The barley harvest starts with strong results. European production is now estimated at 53.3mn t. As for soft wheat, production is expected to reach 128.2mn t. Even before these figures were released, wheat prices on Euronext had already begun to decline.
Amid rising production volumes, European operators are closely monitoring negotiations between the European Union and Ukraine concerning imported goods that have benefitted from special tariff conditions since 2022. Quotas will be introduced, although the volumes still need to be approved by the EU member states. The affected products include sugar, wheat, corn, poultry, eggs, and honey.
In the oilseed sector, the Commission has cautiously revised its projection for European rapeseed production to 18.9mn t for the upcoming campaign. In France, rapeseed harvest has begun, revealing uneven yield results so far. Rapeseed prices continue to fall following the correction observed last week. The August 2025 contract on Euronext, which closes at the end of the month, has recorded a sharp drop, widening the price gap with following contracts.
American market
Grain prices fell on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday. Traders, who had been awaiting the USDA’s official June 30 report on planted acreage for the upcoming season, were reassured by the prospect of record corn plantings not seen in nearly a decade. Corn acreage exceeds 95.20mn acres, up 5 % from last year—perfectly in line with expectations. This further reinforces the projected harvest potential, although it's still to be determined how much of this acreage will ultimately be harvested. The December 2025 corn contract posted a modest decline but remained above 4.20 $/bu. Crop condition will now be a key factor to watch, with recent estimates showing improvement - 73 % of acreage is rated “good to excellent” following recent rains.
In wheat, acreage has changed little for both winter and spring wheat compared to March estimates. Quarterly stock levels remain significantly higher than last year, though this was not surprising given the volumes reported in the latest USDA monthly report. The September 2025 contract in Chicago saw a slight decline but continues to trade above 5.35 $/bu amid the harvest period. Winter wheat harvesting made strong progress last week, with 37 % of the crop now harvested.
As for soybeans, prices showed wide fluctuations but posted a gain, climbing back above 10.25 $/bu for the November 2025 contract. A slight reduction in planted area lends some support, especially since crop conditions show no signs of improvement for now. For old-crop soybeans, confirmation of slightly higher quarterly stocks - exceeding one billion bushels - is weighing on prices. These are now returning to last week's lows for the August 2025 contract.
Black Sea market
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