European market
After a hesitant session, prices on Euronext ultimately saw an increase for both wheat and corn. The situation regarding announcements tied to the Black Sea remains unclear in their application. Above all, the real impact of this agreement on trade seems to be put into perspective after a significant export campaign for cereals from both Ukrainian and Russian origins.
Wheat prices on Euronext showed an increase after testing the 220 €/t level on the May 2025 contract. A slight decline in the euro against the dollar also provided some support, with parity falling back below 1.08. For corn, prices also experienced a slight rise in a context where negotiations between Europe and the USA on import taxes are ongoing, bringing a factor of uncertainty.
In oilseeds, aided by rising oil prices in Europe and the recent rebound in canola prices observed in Winnipeg, rapeseed prices are reversing the downward trend of recent weeks. The May contract is trading above 510 €/t just weeks ahead of the closing of option contracts and nearly a month before the expiry of this contract. Although daily trading volumes remain strong on this nearby maturity, it should be noted that the open position on this maturity, which previously dominated, is now declining in favor of new harvest maturities.
American market
Cereal prices in Chicago recorded another consecutive day of decline yesterday for both wheat and corn. The drop follows announcements regarding the securing of commercial navigation in the Black Sea after discussions between the U.S. and involved Russian and Ukrainian parties. However, according to Russian authorities, the conditions for a Black Sea ceasefire are not fully in place yet, as they demand the lifting of several sanctions on grain and fertilizer trade. The situation remains uncertain but seems sufficient for funds to once again liquidate positions in wheat and corn. Nonetheless, ongoing negotiations on U.S. import duties and potential reciprocal measures remain a sensitive topic.
For the 2024 harvest, the May 2025 contract in Chicago closed below 5.36 $/bu, marking a new contract low at the close. During the session, prices also traded close to the lows seen in early March, temporarily dipping below 5.35 $/bu. In corn, the downtrend now pushes the nearby maturity prices to test the 4.50 $/bu level. By the end of the day, the May 2025 contract also registered a new contract low. The progress of planting in the U.S. is reassuring and supports the outlook for the anticipated significant increase in planted areas.
Soybean prices experienced a slight decline yesterday. The May 2025 CME contract is now testing the 10 $/bu zone, a level that has been tested multiple times since early March. Given the robust crushing and export activity since the start of the campaign, U.S. operators will be closely monitoring the USDA's official estimate of next week's quarterly stock size.
Black Sea market
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