European market

The increase in the euro/dollar exchange rate, the closure of options, the end of deposits, risks to global trade, and the lack of significant weather issues among major producers have all recently exerted pressure on wheat prices. Wheat futures on Euronext plummeted drastically, reaching new contract lows. As a result, international buyers resurfaced, although with limited interest in French offers. Morocco showed initiative, while Tunisia and Algeria's tenders remain ongoing. For Algeria, strained diplomatic relations with France will likely prevent any agreement, as over 570,000 tons have already been contracted in the ongoing tender, mainly sourced from the Black Sea region.

Meanwhile, the euro/dollar exchange rate has dampened buying interest for French offers, prompting FranceAgriMer to lower its export estimate to third countries from 3.2 million tons to 3.1 million tons—a far cry from the 10.2 million tons achieved in the previous campaign. However, European demand remains strong, enabling a target of 6.4 million tons in exports, up 2 % from last year. Ultimately, final stocks are expected to reach 2.8 million tons, down more than 3 % from the previous month.

European wheat faces limited export opportunities and will rely on maize to halt the decline. Reduced available volumes in Ukraine compel Europeans to turn to the United States, which will require careful attention as Donald Trump continues to send mixed signals.

American market

The White House continues its maneuvering and claims to have entered negotiations with numerous governments to attempt to reach an agreement and avoid paralyzing global trade. However, the World Trade Organization expects merchandise trade to decline by 0.2 % to 1.5 % this year, which could immobilize markets. The organization also notes that the effects on growth could be significant, which does little to reassure the global economy.

The world is closely watching statements from Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, as the tone could shift rapidly. While the American president threatened his counterpart yesterday morning with a continuation of tariff escalation up to 245 %, there was a slight easing later in the day with the announcement of a willingness to negotiate. Nevertheless, the markets remain unresponsive, uncertain about how to interpret these contradictory signals.

Economically speaking, the decline of the US dollar provides renewed competitiveness to American origins, which continue to attract demand. In maize specifically, Japan and Europe are ramping up purchases ahead of potential tariff turmoil. Today’s export sales report will be closely monitored, with expectations as follows:

• Wheat: 100,000 – 200,000 tons

• Maize: 600,000 – 1,800,000 tons

• Soybeans: 100,000 – 800,000 tons

Black Sea market

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