European market

Volatility and uncertainty peak on Euronext milling wheat futures. The market is grappling with the unwinding of September positions, with the contract set to expire in about a month.

Over the past week, sessions have swung sharply up and down, with daily price moves ranging from 3 to 5 €/t. The downward trend is gaining the upper hand. The September 2025 contract closed yesterday at a new low of 193.50 €/t. December 2025 is declining, posting its first close below 200 €/t at 199.50 €/t.

The bearish pressure isn’t coming from the Black Sea region, where wheat prices remain relatively firm, but rather from Chicago, where wheat futures are bleeding out—dragged down by corn’s steep decline, itself under pressure from the U.S. harvest and heavy fund selling. SRW wheat for September 2025 has dropped 7.5 % over the past two weeks, compared to a 4.6 % decline for Euronext wheat of the same maturity.

Despite concerns over a new heatwave hitting southern France, Euronext corn is also suffering from the bearish influence of its U.S. counterpart. November 2025 futures fell by 1 €/t yesterday, hitting a new low of 192 €/t.

Rapeseed, meanwhile, held up relatively well, shedding “only” 0.75 €/t at the close. Unlike cereals, it has managed to maintain its key support level, in place for the past three months.

American market

Second trading session of the week, and another sharp drop. August marks the end of the critical pollination phase for U.S. corn, which typically occurs in July. Yield forecasts are now pouring in—each one aiming higher than the last. While uncertainties remain, this upward revision trend in yield potential is weighing heavily on corn prices. The nearby contract hit a new low, nearing 3.80 $/bu. For the new crop, the closely watched December 2025 contract is edging dangerously close to the psychological 4 $/bu support, closing yesterday at a new low of 4.02 $/bu.

Despite the price slump, U.S. corn is gaining ground commercially thanks to its competitive price compared to other origins. The USDA reported a new export sale of 128,000 tons yesterday to an unknown destination.

Wheat is also under pressure in Chicago, dragged down by corn and the ongoing U.S. harvest. Even strong export figures in recent weeks haven’t been enough to halt the current downward spiral or stop the wave of fund selling.

Soybeans, on the other hand, held up better, closing down just 3 to 4 cents. Unlike cereals, the crop’s critical flowering phase takes place in August, meaning the game isn’t over yet. Forecasts of hot and dry weather across the Corn Belt are helping soybeans resist the broader bearish trend in Chicago.

Black Sea market

While Black Sea wheat prices remain firm and closely watched—standing in contrast to the bearish pressure seen in Chicago—new trades were recorded yesterday on CME’s brand-new CVB wheat contract. A total of 10 lots were traded on the March 2026 maturity at 246.75 $/t.

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