European market

Geopolitics is back to influence prices on the commodity markets. The situation in the Middle East worries the market participants. While the tension has been rising since the beginning of the week between the United States and Iran, Israeli strikes hit Tehran last night. On the front line and in fear of multiple regional reprisals, crude oil is soaring by +10% to around $75/barrel in New York. That is, a return to the highest level for 5 months.
In this context, the US dollar is resuming its role as a safe haven. So after a surge up to 1.1632 yesterday, the euro/dollar returns to 1.1520 this morning.
The acceleration of the euro/dollar to the highest since October 2021 yesterday weighed on the EU grain and oilseed prices. French wheat, among others, remains penalized by its lack of export competitiveness in the face of Black Sea origins. It will be interesting in this context to follow today the result of Tunisia's tender for 75,000 t of soft wheat for July to early August deliveries.
Yesterday was rich in publications with the report of Conab in Brazil which raises its official estimate of soybean production 2024-25 by +1.3mn t to 169.6mn t and its estimate of corn production 2024-25 by +1.4mn t to 128.3mn t.
The USDA's WASDE report published the following changes on global stocks:

Soft wheat:
2024-25: 264mn t against 265.2mn t last month
2025-26: 262.8mn t against 265.7mn t last month

Corn:
2024-25: 285mn t against 287.3mn t last month
2025-26: 275.2mn t against 277.8mn t last month

Soybeans:
2024-25: 124.2mn t against 123.2mn t last month
2025-26: 125.3mn t against 124.3mn t last month

American market

Before focusing on the monthly USDA report, US operators reacted yesterday to the publication of weekly export sales:

Wheat 2025-26 : 457,000 t
Corn 2024-25: 791,000 t
Soybeans 2024-25: 61,000 t

In its WASDE June 2025 report, the USDA did not show any change in its production forecasts in the United States. The figures of 52.3mn t in wheat, 401.9mn t in corn and 118.1mn t in soybeans are unchanged.
The US 2025-26 wheat stock is revised down slightly to 24.5mn t against 25.12mn t expected last month due to an increase in exports to 22.5mn t against 21.8mn t last month.
In corn, it is the 2024-25 stock which is revised downwards to 34.7mn t against 36mn t last month following an increase in exports to 67.3mn t over the previous campaign.
The soybeans balance sheets of the old and new seasons are unchanged.

Yesterday the soybean oil prices in Chicago were pressured with market worried about the new biodiesel mandates in the United States with a possible announcement today from the EPA on this subject.