European market

The geopolitical tension in the Middle East is strong, amid a conflict between Israel and Iran since the end of last week. Concerns are primarily focused on the crude oil market, as Iran threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic point for global oil trade. The price of a barrel of oil, hovering around 72 $ in New York, has risen by 14 % over the past week.

The surge in crude oil has pulled other commodities upward. As a result, the entire grain market saw gains on Friday on Euronext and Chicago, with a broad wave of short position buybacks by investment funds.

The international wheat market was notably active due to Tunisia's purchase of 100,000 metric tons from optional origins, compared to the 75,000 t initially sought.

Rapeseed has shown the strongest increase, with the August 2025 Euronext contract closing up 12.50 €/t from the previous day, reaching 494.75 €/t—the highest level since March 3. Rapeseed has also benefited from the surge in soybean oil prices, which hit their limit on Friday in Chicago following favorable proposals for its inclusion in biodiesel in the United States.

In France, last weekend’s storms locally caused damage to crops. However, they also brought much-needed rain for both summer and winter crops north of the Loire.

On Friday, FranceAgriMer published its Céréobs report on crop conditions:

• Soft wheat: 70 % rated good to excellent, compared to 69 % last week and 70 % on average.

• Durum wheat: 73 % rated good to excellent, same as last week, versus 67 % on average.

• Winter barley: 65 % rated good to excellent, up from 64 % last week, versus 68 % on average.

• Spring barley: 71 % rated good to excellent, down from 73 % last week, but above the 70 % average.

• Corn: 85 % rated good to excellent, unchanged from last week, compared to 80 % on average.

American market

Perceived as fairly neutral, the USDA June report was quickly absorbed by the U.S. market, which primarily focused on geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and the surge in crude oil prices on Friday.

This context, which encouraged short position buybacks by investment funds, was further reinforced by favorable announcements for the biodiesel sector in the U.S. from the EPA. Previously cautious on this matter, the soybean oil market welcomed the prospect of strong demand growth with a price limit increase in Chicago.

Corn, on the other hand, saw its gains capped by forecasts of new favorable rains across the Corn Belt.

The record short position held by funds led to a significant price increase across all U.S. wheat varieties, with SRW and HRW gaining 17 to 18 cents, and HRS rising by 13 to 14 cents.

Black Sea market

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