European market

Wheat and rapeseed are experiencing diametrically opposite trajectories at the end of this campaign. The options expiry yesterday on the May 2025 Euronext contract further exacerbated these movements. On one hand, May 2025 wheat plunged significantly, closing with a drop of 4 €/t to reach a new contract low. On the other hand, May 2025 rapeseed soared, closing with a rise of 11.50 €/t, marking a new contract high.

Corn, although slightly down yesterday, saw a much more modest decline than wheat. Despite a brief and slight drop in the euro/dollar exchange rate below 1.1300 yesterday, European wheat remains penalized by its lack of exports to third countries. As for rapeseed, it is unaffected by this monetary situation. It is primarily driven by technical considerations linked to the end of the contract on Euronext and logistical factors, all in a context of seed shortages at the end of the campaign in Europe.

This mid-week, attention turns to Algeria's tender for soft wheat purchases for June delivery, valid until tomorrow.

The French Ministry of Agriculture released its latest estimates yesterday for the 2025 harvest area:

• Soft wheat: 4.633 million hectares, up 1.1 % compared to the five-year average.

• Winter barley: 1.224 million hectares, down 2.6 % compared to the five-year average.

• Spring barley: 520,000 hectares, down 10.7 % compared to the five-year average.

• Durum wheat: 223,000 hectares, down 12.7 % compared to the five-year average.

• Protein peas: 112,000 hectares, down 30.6 % compared to the five-year average.

• Rapeseed: 1.289 million hectares, up 7.4 % compared to the five-year average.

American market

After last week's gains, prices are entering a correction phase in Chicago. Profit-taking is being observed across all products. Funds are following suit, particularly with selling activity in wheat and corn.

As of now, operators are ignoring the slight delay in the start of U.S. corn planting and the sharp decline in winter wheat crop ratings in Kansas last week. However, weather in the coming weeks will be crucial in the U.S., as wheat needs rain while corn will require drier conditions.

Soybeans are once again under bearish pressure due to concerns over the ongoing trade war between the United States and China.

Noteworthy is yesterday's USDA announcement of an exceptional sale of 110,000 tons of U.S. corn to Portugal.

Black Sea market

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