European market

The grain market continued its decline on Euronext yesterday, in a market narrowed by the public holiday on May 8 in France and Belgium.

The euro/dollar exchange rate fell again, now at 1.1225, following a firm speech by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday evening. However, this drop is not yet enough to ease the current downward pressure on wheat and corn prices.

While northern Europe remains particularly dry, beneficial rains are expected throughout next week across the Black Sea region. This is weighing on new crop wheat prices, with the Euronext September 2025 contract dropping by 1.75 €/t yesterday, returning to recent lows of 202 €/t.

Adding to wheat’s decline, American corn prices are also struggling. The Euronext June 2025 contract reached a new closing low of 191.75 €/t after another drop of 0.75 €/t yesterday.

Amid this gloomy market, rapeseed stands out, managing to stay afloat thanks to a tight supply situation both in Europe and internationally. A report from Statistics Canada released yesterday highlighted particularly low Canadian canola stocks as of March 31, totaling 5.9 mn t—down 38.7 % year-on-year and at their lowest levels since March 2022 and, before that, March 2013. The vegetable oil sector is also showing some signs of recovery after a sluggish start to the week, following crude oil’s rebound above 60 $/b in New York.

American market

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained a "hawkish" tone in his speech Wednesday evening, alongside the announcement that U.S. interest rates would remain at their current levels. In this context, the dollar strengthened, with the Dollar Index rising above 100 for the first time since April 10.

This appreciation of the U.S. currency further amplified the downward pressure on commodity prices in Chicago yesterday. However, corn managed to limit its losses by the end of the session, supported by strong weekly export sales of 1.662 mn t for the 2024/2025 season. Additionally, an exceptional sale of 205,000 t of U.S. corn to Mexico and 155,000 t to an unknown destination was announced. This reinforces expectations of a reduction in U.S. corn stocks for 2024/2025 in the upcoming USDA monthly report on Monday, May 12, although a very comfortable stock level is anticipated for the new campaign.

Wheat tested its recent lows again yesterday, around 5.25 $/bu for the July 2025 contract in Chicago, before paring its losses by the end of the session. Weekly wheat export sales published yesterday by the USDA were limited for the current season, amounting to just 69,659 t. However, sales for the 2025/2026 season exceeded expectations at 492,978 t, signaling strong competitiveness for U.S. wheat at the start of the new campaign.

Soybeans fared better, supported by a slight rebound in vegetable oils and crude oil prices. However, USDA weekly soybean export sales fell to 376,653 t for the past week in the 2024/2025 season.

Black Sea market

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