European market

The bearish pressure observed on the U.S. market was simply too strong not to affect the European market. That is why, despite genuine support from the euro-dollar hovering near 1.1400 compared to 1.1800 at the beginning of the week, prices resumed their downward trajectory yesterday on Euronext.

French wheat is seeking to maximize its export opportunities from the very start of the campaign. In this context, the September 2025 contract on Euronext shed 2 €/t, closing at 196.25 €/t. The corn market remains more subdued amid declining production potential in Europe and delayed Brazilian exports. As a result, the November 2025 contract on Euronext posted only a modest decline of 0.50 €/t.

Tracking the oilseed complex, European rapeseed struggles while soybean, canola, and palm oil all move jointly downward across their respective futures markets. A sharp drop was seen on Euronext, with the November 2025 contract falling by 5.25 €/t to close at 477.50 €/t—its lowest level since July 14.

The European Commission yesterday released its latest production estimates for the new 2025/2026 marketing year in the EU27:

• Soft wheat: 127.3 Mt compared to 128.3 Mt previously estimated
• Barley: 53.6 Mt compared to 53.3 Mt previously estimated
• Corn: 60.1 Mt compared to 64.6 Mt previously estimated
• Rapeseed: 18.5 Mt compared to 18.9 Mt previously estimated

American market

With the exception of crude oil, many commodities were under pressure yesterday, facing both the strengthening of the dollar and ongoing trade negotiations led by the United States, particularly with China. In the grain sector, wheat and soybeans were the hardest hit in Chicago.

Soybeans are weighed down by several bearish factors: consistently ideal weather conditions over the Corn Belt during the flowering period, an abundant South American supply, extremely heavy soymeal stocks, uncertain Chinese demand, and very weak U.S. export commitments for the new marketing year.

Though also declining, U.S. wheat continues to demonstrate solid export competitiveness. The USDA announced an exceptional sale of 100,000 t of HRW wheat to Nigeria yesterday.

Investment funds followed the trend, executing net sales in wheat and soybeans. By contrast, they bought corn, which ended the session with a slight gain—just as it did the day before. U.S. corn is benefiting from its strong export competitiveness to halt the early-week downward slide. The USDA reported a series of exceptional corn sales yesterday: 100,000 t to Colombia, 140,000 t to South Korea, and 136,000 t to an unknown destination. All this came after the largest weekly U.S. corn export sales since May 2021.

The USDA published its weekly U.S. export sales figures yesterday:

• Wheat: 592,000 t for 2025/2026

• Corn: 341,000 t for 2024/2025 and 1.892 Mt for 2025/2026

• Soybeans: 349,000 t for 2024/2025 and 429,000 t for 2025/2026

Black Sea market

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