European market
The evolution of tensions on Ukrainian territory is an important element to follow. The grain market operators are following the situation and its possible impacts with the greatest interest. In the short term, the new strength of the dollar focuses the attention of European market with a euro/dollar parity below 1.05. This situation brought a little support to wheat prices yesterday on Euronext.
In terms of fundamental elements, the IGC has revised, compared to its estimate last month, its global wheat production forecast 2024-25 by - 2mn t, reaching 796mn t, a level comparable to last year at 795mn t. The export activity for the 2024-25 season is unchanged at 197mn t, confirming the expected decrease compared to last year. On the other hand, helped by an upward adjustment in consumption, the size of the carry-over stock is announced at 263mn t, a decrease of -1.1% compared to last month and especially -3.3% compared to last year. In corn, the IGC is also revising global consumption upwards, a situation that brings the carry-over stock to 275mn t, a decline of -1.4% compared to last month and -3.5% compared to the 2023-24 campaign.
The largest price change observed yesterday concerns the rapeseed market. On Euronext, the prices have seen a strong downward correction, erasing in a single session several weeks of rise. The February 2025 contract is now approaching the level of 510€/t. The decline in vegetable oil prices and other oilseeds will push rapeseed prices to follow the downward movement.
American market
Soybean prices yesterday marked a new decline in Chicago. The January 2025 contract returned to its lowest closing level for 3 months. In this phase of decline, some buyers are back, as illustrated by the new exceptional sales. A volume sold of 333,000 t of soybeans was reported yesterday by the USDA, the majority of which are destined for China. For the second time this week, a new sale of soybean meal was also announced for the Philippines for a volume of 133,000 t. The prices of US meal approached the recent lows.
Despite a weekly activity of sales to exports within the range of expectations, corn also marked a decline yesterday. The December 2024 contract returned below the level of $4.30/bu, erasing the previous day's progress. The operators seem a little more reassured about the evolution of weather conditions in South America.
Wheat in Chicago, a follower of corn, also ran out of steam late yesterday. However, the session was animated with negotiations close to the highest levels of the week after the announcements on the escalation between Russia and Ukraine. However, the new strengthening of the dollar came to weigh on the prices.
Black Sea market
Click here to request full access to the AgriMarkets report to find out more about the Black Sea region, and follow price trends in Russia on a daily basis.
