European market

The easing of the euro/dollar exchange rate, which is once again testing the 1.1600 level, is providing support to European grain prices. As a result, wheat and corn prices on Euronext confirmed a firmer tone by the end of the day, although without returning to the highs seen at the start of the month. The decline of the euro against the dollar is mechanically offering support, even though it has not translated into renewed export activity. However, the latest European Union figures for exports in the 2025/2026 marketing year still point to a slightly better situation than last year at this stage. As the end of the season approaches, exporters are increasingly focusing on the potential for activity over the summer period, when new availabilities will add to carryover stocks.

In oilseeds, rapeseed prices are once again trading at the highest levels seen in early May, testing the €530/t resistance zone. This move back to these levels is also stimulating options market activity on Euronext across several maturities. Market participants are also keeping a close eye on the strengthening trend in vegetable oil prices following Indonesian announcements regarding tighter export controls.

American market

US exporters are now waiting for greater clarity following the conclusion of weekend negotiations between the US and Chinese presidents. The prospect of higher imports must now be effectively implemented, with a commitment to purchase additional volumes of US agricultural production as early as this year.

Corn prices for the December 2026 contract briefly tested the $5/bu level during the session before ultimately posting a modest gain yesterday. The strengthening of the dollar has been confirmed since last week, with the dollar index returning to its highest level since April 8—an element to be considered when adjusting export demand.

Supported by the recent rebound in Chicago wheat prices since the start of the week, directly linked to dry crop conditions, prices for the September 2026 SRW contract managed to move back above $6.90/bu intraday. In the end, after some profit-taking, the session closed higher than the previous day, just above $6.80/bu. Producers remain concerned about the yield potential of winter wheat, with new-crop prices for HRW still trading above $7/bu.

In oilseeds, alongside the rebound in palm oil prices in Malaysia, firmness in vegetable oil markets is being confirmed and is single-handedly supporting soybean prices. New-crop soybeans are now trading above $12/bu. Soybean oil on the same contract is now approaching the 76 c$/lb level, thereby erasing most of the decline seen since the beginning of the month.