European market
Geopolitics and weather remain, as at the end of last week, the main factors of volatility on the European grain market. Although a public holiday in many European countries, this Monday was open for transactions on Euronext. A bearish correction was seen for all products under the influence of crude oil that is falling sharply by to -7% back to a session low of $89.4 per barrel in New York.
Indeed, throughout the weekend the announcements of positive progress in the peace negotiations between the United States and Iran followed one another, reinforcing the prospect of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. But this Tuesday morning, the strait remains controlled by Iran while American strikes presented as "self-defense" have taken place in recent hours on the south of Iran at the height of the strait. A confusing situation that offers a slight rebound for crude oil at $91.6/barrel this morning.
On the weather front, after a wet and cool first part of May in Europe, there is now a historic heat wave for the season and expected to last until the weekend. A critical situation for the few areas previously little watered and to be monitored despite everything on the whole like all excesses.
Last Friday, FranceAgriMer published as part of its Cereal program the state of crops in France as of May 18, 2026:
Wheat: 80% from good to very good, unchanged over the week and against 71% last year
Winter barley: 76% from good to very good, unchanged over the week and against 66% last year
Spring barley: 85% from good to very good, down by -1 pt over the week and against 75% last year
Corn: 90% from good to very good, unchanged over the week and against 87% last year
Durum wheat: 71% from good to very good, unchanged over the week and against 77% last year.
American market
The American markets reopen this Tuesday after the long Memorial Day weekend in the United States. Although the geopolitical situation remains confused and uncertain, the prospect of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran and the consequent fall in crude oil favour the liquidations of positions on the part of the funds in Chicago.
Prices remained close to equilibrium on Friday evening with a very slightly higher close for corn and soybeans and a very slight decline for wheat.
In terms of weather, the conditions dry up on the Corn Belt while they become more humid south of the Great Plains. In a context of a market sensitive to the state of crops, as every year at this time, operators will carefully follow the USDA's weekly Crop Progress report, the publication of which is postponed to this Tuesday evening at 22:00 p.m. Paris time.
Black Sea market
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