European market

Wheat is continuing to rise on both sides of the Atlantic, following yesterday’s session marked by a very sharp increase in prices. As exports from Russian and Ukrainian ports remain blocked, the risk premium is increasing in the market. The possibility of a prolonged disruption is at the heart of discussions. The emergence of French wheat cargoes bound for Egypt and Sudan, both of which normally rely more heavily on Black Sea wheat, reflects the beginning of a reallocation of international trade flows.

While demand remains subdued in North Africa and the Middle East, Tunisia yesterday purchased 125,000 t of wheat and 75,000 t of feed barley on an optional origin basis.

The rise in prices was even stronger yesterday for corn, which broke above its recent resistance at 265 €/t on the Nov 26 Euronext contract. This is partly due to spillover support from wheat, but also to further downward revisions to France’s production potential. Argus Media is currently forecasting France’s 2026 grain corn crop at 6.9 mn t, down 48 % year-on-year and the lowest level since 1976.

Rapeseed continues the rebound that began on Tuesday, supported yesterday by the recovery in crude oil and North American oilseeds.

American market

Wheat continued to climb yesterday, reaching a fresh 3-year high on Chicago. The limit-up move recorded on Wednesday was not enough to cool the enthusiasm of this overheated market. As in 2022, the rally in Chicago wheat is the first sign of disruptions in the Black Sea region.

Chicago grains are also benefiting from a broader uptrend across most commodities, pushing commodity indices to their highest levels since last spring.

Corn edged lower yesterday in Chicago amid profit-taking after the previous day’s rally, which was largely driven by wheat. The pullback remains limited, however. Prices are still above 5 $/bu due to deteriorating yield potential, highlighted both by the recent decline in US crop ratings and by the findings of last week’s Pro Farmer Crop Tour across the Corn Belt.

Unlike corn, soybeans continued to move higher yesterday, reaching new contract highs. The rebound in crude oil above 80 $/barrel in New York supported the oilseed complex. US soybean prices are also benefiting from fresh rumours of Chinese purchases. Soybean oil, meanwhile, remains focused on ongoing discussions regarding exemptions granted to small refineries.

The weekly export sales published yesterday by the USDA were as follows:

Wheat 26/27: 402,500 t
Corn 26/27: 1.066 mn t
Soybeans 26/27: 2.4783 mn t

Black Sea market

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