European market

The grain market ended last week down in Europe. The truce announced in the Middle East and the start of peace negotiations in Pakistan have come to reduce the geopolitical risk premium, weigh on crude oil prices and revive the rise of the euro/ dollar above 1.1700. The April USDA report was judged as heavy and came in focus with its upward revisions to global wheat and corn stocks.

In this context, Euronext wheat in May 2026 closed down by -0.75 €/t at 194.75 €/t at the lowest since February 18th, while corn in June 2026 also declined by -0.75 €/t closing at 202.75 €/t at the lowest since March 5th.

As often in recent months, rapeseed stands out thanks to less heavy fundamentals on the oilseed complex. The firmness of the soybean complex also supports Canadian canola as well as European rapeseed.

It is in a completely different atmosphere that this new week will begin on the geopolitical and macroeconomic front. The negotiations in Islamabad between official representatives of Iran and the United States broke down over the weekend. Although the truce continues, Donald Trump's announcement of a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz from this Monday at 16:00 to deprive Iran of any crude oil exports has revived concerns and tensions.

As the 7th week of conflict and blockade of the Persian Gulf begins, crude oil prices are jumping again by + 7 to 8% with a WTI flirting this morning with $ 105/bbl in New York and a Brent which exceeds $ 102/bbl in London. Inversely correlated to crude oil prices, the euro/dollar falls back below 1.1700.

It is therefore with volatility that this new week should open on Euronext futures contracts, a market that is extending its evening trading hours from this Monday, April 13. While the clearing price will still be set daily at 18:30 Paris time, the quotation range on futures contracts is extended until 20:15 Paris time. Trading options, blocks, against actuals and EFP will not be possible during this extended range of 1:45. The front contract will also be excluded during the last 3 sessions before its expiration.

American market

Optimism related to the peace negotiations in Pakistan weighed on grain prices on the Chicago market on Friday. The dissipation of the geopolitical risk premium on commodities has allowed the heaviness of fundamentals to take its place again. Wheat is the most affected because it is both the most emotionally linked to geopolitics and at the same time the heaviest in terms of fundamentals on a global scale as recalled in the USDA's Wasde report of April 9th.

Corn on Chicago is down under the bearish influence of wheat. Although supported by US export sales ahead by +30% compared to last year, this market remains marked by historically high carry-in stocks for 2025-26 in the United States, kept at 54 Mt by the USDA.

The soybean prices did not decline after the publication of the USDA report last Thursday evening and were able to continue its rebound to return to test the resistance zone of 11.75 / 11.80 $/bu, in place for 3 weeks now on the front contract. While soybean oil ended last week in the red affected by the decrease of crude oil, the meals compensated by a strong firmness last week on Chicago.

There is no doubt that Donald Trump's announcement of a naval blockade of Iranian ports starting this Monday following the failure of the weekend negotiations will once again fuel volatilityn on this beginning of the week.

Black Sea market

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