European market

The market was expecting for weeks the Thursday, September 12 for the macro-economic news. The European Central Bank has indeed lowered its main interest rate by -25 basis points to 3.5%, as expected. The market participants are now waiting to know if the Fed will do the same next week in the United States. In this context, the euro/dollar remains volatile and has been trading between 1.10 and 1.11 since the beginning of the week.

Crude oil, meanwhile, erased its losses from the beginning of the week by returning to near $70/barrel in New York, amid fears related to the passage of Hurricane Francine over the Gulf of Mexico. But U.S. oil facilities do not appear to have been affected.

The wheat market showed signs of firmness again yesterday during the day, supported by renewed geopolitical tensions over the Black Sea. However, the USDA came to dampen the market's bullish trends at the close by posting sufficient global supplies in its yesterdays' monthly report.

The USDA has tightened the EU wheat balance sheet with a downward revision of production by -4mn t to 124mn t, which leads to a further decrease in the carryover stock by -0.24mn t to 9.9mn t. However, this was offset by a strong increase of +2.75mn t in old season stocks in Canada and +2mn t in expected production in Australia to 32mn t. The world wheat stock rose to 257.22mn t against 256.62mn t expected last month.

In corn, the world stock fell by -1.8mn t compared to last month to 308.35mn t. In addition to a downward revision of -1.5mn t of production in Europe to 59mn t, it is important to note the downward revision of Chinese corn imports by -2mn t to 21mn t.

In soybeans, the global situation remains unchanged for 2024-25 with a global stock posted by the USDA at 134.6mn t compared to 134.3mn t last month.

American market

The publication of the monthly September WASDE report by the USDA yesterday did not cause major changes on prices in the United States. In wheat, the US balance sheet remained completely unchanged. In corn, the surprise comes from the yield raised to 183.6 bu/acre against a consensus that expected a slight decrease compared to last month. The US corn production 2024-25 is therefore up to 385.7mn t. But a downward revision of the beginning stocks allows the US 2024-25 end-of-season stocks to decline to 52.3mn t against 52.7mn t last month.

In soybeans, the forecast yield in the United States is left unchanged by the USDA at 53.2 bu/acre. US production is expected at 124.8mn t compared to 124.9mn t last month. Due to a slight decrease in the beginning stock, the ending stock 2024-25 is lowered to 15mn t, against 15.25mn t expected last month, which remains very comfortable.

The US weekly export sales published yesterday by the USDA are :

Wheat: 474,900 t

Corn: 666,500 t

Soybeans: 1,474,000 t

The funds were selling yesterday corn and wheat while they were buying soybeans.

Black Sea market

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