European market

The news flow remains particularly heavy and provides considerable support to the agricultural raw materials market. The wheat September 2026 finds levels higher than the psychological zone of 230 €/t. It is necessary to go back to June 2025 to find such levels. Since the beginning of the month, wheat prices have regained nearly €30/t, while production is disappointing in several regions.
In addition to the United States, where the consequences of the spring drought on wheat were already widely anticipated, France is also disappointing in terms of yields. The production potential has been greatly eroded under the effect of the rainfall deficit and the extreme heat observed in recent months. In this context, Agreste has taken a first step by publishing an estimate of French soft wheat production at 32.0 Mt, which is significantly lower than the 33.4 Mt harvested last year.

For the other productions, the estimates are at :

Durum wheat: 1.09 Mt against 1.30 Mt in 2025 ;
Winter barley: 8.86 Mt against 8.35 Mt in 2025 ;
Spring barley: 2.24 Mt against 3.50 Mt in 2025 ;
Rapeseed: 4.63 Mt against 4.64 Mt in 2025.

The Agreste report also highlighted the 19% decrease in the corn planted area compared to last year. Even worse, the persistent drought could lead to area transfers to silage, which would further reduce the potential for grain corn production. It must be said that the prospects are catastrophic in many regions and that the weather forecasts do not, for now, suggest any signs of improvement.
The volumes traded on Euronext reached record levels yesterday, with 142,608 lots traded on the September contract. This exceptionally sustained activity is also explained by a particularly unstable geopolitical context. While the Strait of Hormuz continues to raise concerns, the Kerch Strait remains a major strategic point for the grain trade. This exit route for Russian grain shipped from the Sea of Azov remains closed and disrupts global flows. At the same time, attacks on port terminals near Odessa are making buyers more cautious in this area. In the absence of sustained activity on the ports of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, other origins could benefit.
Finally, in this turbulent context, rapeseed is taking advantage of the situation to register new highs on the November contract, at €548.50/t. The sunflower situation remains very worrying in Western Europe, which continues to support the entire oilseed complex.

American market

Tensions in the Middle East and the Black Sea have strongly supported US prices. SRW wheat returns to its highs of last May and is approaching the psychological zone of $7/bushel. While it is now admitted that the American wheat harvest will be disappointing this year, operators are naturally monitoring the potential revival of demand. This situation comes in a context of persistent tensions in the Black Sea, likely to reshuffle the maps of global flows.
At the same time, on the ground, all eyes are on the Corn Belt, as the corn enters its crucial flowering phase. Over the next few days, rainfall is expected to remain patchy, which raises some concerns. Although the situation is not alarming at this stage, the global corn balance sheet leaves little room for maneuver in the event of a climate incident in the United States, which focuses the attention of the markets.
In soybeans, the situation is relatively similar, in a context where demand remains particularly strong. After the recent Chinese purchases, the operators were waiting with attention for the latest crushing figures. The NOPA has once again reported a high level of activity, which, however, keeps soybean oil stocks at low levels. This publication contributed greatly to supporting the prices during yesterday's session.
In the short term, Donald Trump's statements regarding the situation in the Middle East and the Black Sea will remain particularly closely followed. However, at this stage, the markets seem being more cautious than before about the statements of the American president.

Black Sea market

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