European market
The upward movement of the euro against the dollar, driven by doubts about the economic situation in the USA, entails a new adjustment of European prices and notably a further drop in cereal prices. Yesterday, prices for the May 2025 contract on Euronext showed a new decline to 216.50 €/t, reaching their lowest compensation level in 8 months for this contract. The prospects for increased end-of-campaign stocks compared to last month, as reported yesterday by the USDA, in Europe at 11.29 Mt and in Russia at 11.34 Mt, also weighed on prices. The USDA has revised downward the export volumes of wheat from Europe and Russia by -0.5 Mt and -1 Mt respectively. Wheat export activity would, however, increase by +0.5 Mt from Ukraine despite the contraction in global export activity expected by the USDA, partly due to reduced Chinese demand.
European corn prices also recorded a decline yesterday, moving in the wake of wheat and adjustments in the USDA balance sheet. On Euronext, corn prices for the June 2055 contract are now at 208 €/t, their lowest level since last August 28. The postponement of the implementation of corn import taxes in Europe, after the announced delay in deploying U.S. taxes, provides some European importers with a reprieve to maintain the flow from the USA.
Oilseed prices, which had seen a sharp decline the day before, appreciated yesterday. Rapeseed prices on Euronext for the nearby contract were above 510 €/t. Despite the drop in oil and palm oil prices, European markets benefited from the rebound in Canadian canola. In Winnipeg, canola prices returned to levels seen at the end of February, erasing the decline observed last March.
American market
The U.S. market has been tense for several weeks, gradually integrating announcements and counter-announcements related to the implementation of import taxes by the United States and the responses from other countries affected worldwide. The impact of these measures on the American economy has raised significant doubts and, alongside the price declines observed in U.S. financial markets, has pushed the dollar to depreciate. Consequently, the dollar index is now below the symbolic level of 100 points, reaching its lowest level since July 2023.
Mechanically, the decline of the dollar brings a favorable element to U.S. exports, particularly to several importing countries that have not implemented new taxes. Regarding corn, with a very robust pace since the start of this campaign, the USDA revised upward yesterday, in its latest monthly report, the potential for corn exports. Export volumes for the 2024/2025 campaign would now exceed 64.77 Mt. This situation reduces the forecast for end-of-campaign stocks in the U.S. to 37.22 Mt, a decline of around 17% compared to last year. Corn prices in Chicago marked a new increase for the fifth consecutive session. Supported by fund buying, the May 2025 contract is now back above 4.80 $/bu, erasing all the downward movement initiated since the end of February.
The upward trend was also observed in soybeans. The May 2025 contract is again trading above 10.25 $/bu, technically filling the gap opened on April 3. The USDA’s export forecasts for the current campaign have not changed compared to last month, still targeting a volume of 49.67 Mt. The upward revision of crushing activity has consequently led to a slight decrease in stocks compared to last month's estimate.
After an active session, wheat prices in Chicago ultimately showed a decline. The May 2025 contract fell back below 5.40 $/bu despite the dollar's depreciation. The upward revision of U.S. wheat stocks, which would exceed 23 Mt at the end of the campaign according to the USDA, thus weighed on prices.
Black Sea market
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