European market
The euro/dollar exchange rate is trading at the start of this week at its highest level in 4 months, approaching the 1.0850 mark. This movement is primarily the result of the current depreciation of the dollar against other currencies. The dollar index has dropped by around -4 % since the beginning of the month, reaching its lowest level since last November. This trend perfectly reflects the current market nervousness and the rapidity of fluctuations in the context of geopolitical tensions and reactions to numerous announcements.
On Euronext, grain prices, which have been on a continuous decline for over a month, showed a slight increase yesterday. With the closure of the March 2025 wheat contract now finalized, operators will focus on the May 2025 contract for the remainder of the campaign. This last contract alone accounts for nearly 65 % of the open interest across all Euronext wheat contracts currently. After the observed downward trend, market participants remain cautious about the volume of recently negotiated export deals. New importing countries are positioning themselves, such as Algeria. The OAIC has issued a tender for new purchases of soft wheat for shipments scheduled in May.
The announcement of new taxes by China on Canadian canola meal and oil has introduced additional nervousness to the oilseed market. Canola prices in Winnipeg experienced a sharp decline, dragging rapeseed prices down with them. The May 2025 rapeseed contract prices on Euronext are thus approaching their support zone at 480 €/t, corresponding to their lowest level since late September. However, not all oilseeds are affected by this decline, as prices for sunflower seeds continue to show firmness
American market
Corn and wheat prices rose at the start of this week. For wheat, SRW qualities under the May 2025 contract erased last week’s decline by closing above 5.60 $/bu. For the new crop, prices also increased in anticipation of updated information on crop conditions. The USDA released this data after the session. In Texas, the condition of winter wheat has deteriorated, with 52 % now rated as "good to excellent," down from 54 %. Similarly, ratings in Kansas fell by 2 points to 52 % in the "good to excellent" category compared to the previous week.
Corn prices also retraced last week’s decline. The May 2025 contract closed yesterday above 4.70 $/bu. Ahead of the USDA’s monthly report release, funds slightly returned to buying after the correction trend that began in late February. The evolution of U.S. export activity will be closely monitored, supported by the simultaneous drop in grain prices and the dollar. Loading activity remains strong out of the U.S., with new exceptional corn sales announced yesterday for 126,000 tonnes to Japan.
Reflecting American stock markets’ anxiety over trade tensions with China and the impact of increased import taxes, the entire soybean complex showed a decline. This retreat erased the recent gains recorded late last week. Meanwhile, harvests in Brazil are progressing, catching up on previous delays thanks to favorable, dry weather conditions.
Black Sea market
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