European market

Donald Trump's policy in the United States generates a very high volatility on all markets and in particular those of agricultural raw materials. A euro/dollar parity shows a sharp fall towards 1.0220, supporting EU export prices. The EU grain market ended the session up yesterday also supported by the rise in Chicago. The pause for a month of the trade war launched over the weekend between the United States and its two neighbors, Mexico and Canada, has given support to US prices.
The wheat market on Euronext is also supported by the funds' position buying back and by the uncertainties surrounding the 2025-26 wheat production in the northern hemisphere. The corn follows the movement.
Rapeseed, under pressure last week, is back on the upward trend since the expiration of the February 2025 contract on Euronext. It reflects a still tight fundamental situation in Europe at the end of the campaign. Rapeseed also reacts to the better geopolitical news for Canadian canola, a product that is highly exposed to the US policy as Canadian oil exports are important for the US biodiesel industry.
On the international scene, the demand for feed grains remains strong. Two tenders are closing today. The first from Iran for 120,000 t of corn and 120,000 t of barley and the second from Algeria for 240,000 t of corn and 35,000 t of feed barley. Jordan will wait until tomorrow 5.02 to finalize a call for tenders on 120,000 t of feed barley.

American market

After the mini-trade war between the United States and Colombia which lasted a few hours, the markets were animated yesterday by a two-day mini-trade war between the United States and its two neighbors.
The President of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, quickly announced yesterday that she had negotiated with Donald Trump a one-month pause in the application of the 25% US customs duties. In exchange, Mexico will send 10,000 soldiers to monitor the border with the United States both against illegal immigration and against the trafficking of fentanyl, the drug that crystallizes all the anger of Donald Trump against his neighbors.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau did the same after the markets closed. Canada got a one-month break in exchange for various elements aimed at strengthening its border with the United States, in particular to stop the flow of fentanyl.
China, imposed 10% customs duties by the United States, is yet to state cearly its position. Nevertheless, the prices were well supported by yesterday's negotiations with Mexico and Canada. The funds have massively returned to purchases yesterday on all products.
The USDA published last night its monthly crop ratings for winter wheat. This results reflect the soil moisture levels depending on region:
Kansas: 50% from good to excellent compared to 47% on January 6th
Illinois: 65% from good to excellent compared to 69% on January 6th
Colorado: 57% from good to excellent compared to 70% on January 6th.
The weather, which remains capricious in South America, is meanwhile an element of attention for the corn and soybeans market in Chicago.

Black Sea market

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