European market
Volatility is the key word this weekend on the crude oil market, on currencies and ultimately on grains.
The attacks on gas fields and crude oil installations in the Persian Gulf caused Brent oil prices to jump yesterday in London up to $119/barrel. However, the latter has fallen back below $110 as new appeasement announcements have been made. Between the United States proposing to lift sanctions on Iran's offshore oil stockpile, the Israeli Prime Minister evoking a forthcoming end to the conflict or even the turnarounds of the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan which say they are ready to secure the Strait of Hormuz, attempts to de-escalate prices follow one another.
The worries about the production and exports of natural gas and urea in the Middle East add the fear of a lack of fertilizers to that of a lack of energy for the next few months in the world. This came to support the entire grain market yesterday.
The euro/dollar which had fallen yesterday morning to 1.1450, in response to the FED's "hawkish" tone on Wednesday evening and the surge in crude oil, recovered with the easing of the latter to finally come back to test the 1.1600. A speech by the ECB yesterday was also perceived as "hawkish".
The prices of wheat, corn and rapeseed however fell all day yesterday after a firmer start to the session and this in the wake of the easing of crude oil and the rise of the euro / dollar.
American market
A relaxation of the dollar index came to give an additional boost to the grains which all closed higher last night. To the bullish influence of crude oil, is added more and more the stress of fertilizers as a support element pushing, as yesterday, funds to purchases on most products in Chicago.
On the ground, while the discussions of crop rotation between soyneans and corn keep coming up, the USDA monitoring system indicates that 55% of US winter wheat is affected by drought, the same level as last week.
In South America, the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange is showing confidence for the Argentine corn and soybean harvests after recent and favourable rains. It estimates the production of soybeans at 48.5 Mt and that of corn at 57 Mt. In Brazil, the Abiove crushing association raises its soybean harvest estimate by +0.7 Mt to 177.85 Mt and increases its crushing forecast by +0.5 Mt to 61.5 Mt.
Despite a preponderant geopolitical news, operators however followed yesterday the publication of US weekly sales by the USDA:
Wheat:190,000 t on 2025/26 and 212,000 t on 2026/27
Corn: 1.172 Mt on 2025/26
Soybeans: 298,000 t on 2025/26.
Black Sea market
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