European market
The European grain market continues to suffer from headwinds at the beginning of the week on the macroeconomic level. Indeed, crude oil fell again yesterday by -4.8% in New York. WTI is now approaching $85 a barrel after Donald Trump announced that he expects more before any major attack on Iran, and this at the request of the Gulf countries. This easing of energy benefited US stocks and allowed a decrease of the dollar index in a market more inclined to risk-taking. This is how the euro/dollar resumed yesterday all the decline conceded on Friday. It is displayed again close to 1.1230.
On the geopolitical front, the operators will keep their eyes on Abu Dhabi today, where trilateral negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the United States will be held this Tuesday, November 10 and Wednesday, November 11. The prospect of a possible peace in Ukraine or, at a minimum, a resumption of flows in the Black Sea has been one of the main selling points of the funds in recent weeks on grains.
Finally, on a fundamental level, the market will undoubtedly react to the conclusions of the USDA's monthly report of this Tuesday, November 10th. Note that the reactions will continue tomorrow, November 11, a public holiday in France, but the day of listing on the European market of Euronext.
In such a context, wheat prices closed yesterday's session in scattered order on the different contracts of the Euronext wheat contract. The December 2026 contract continues its recovery in favour of some short-term export interests for French wheat, while the following contracts are falling because of the prospect of a resumption of flows in the Black Sea in the spring and for the new campaign.
Corn is showing more firmness on all the contracts for the 2026 harvest listed on Euronext, still looking for the right fundamental balance after the catastrophic French harvest results of the last two months.
Finally, the rapeseed is straightening up very timidly. It has been able to withstand the ambient downward pressures both from crude oil and palm oil, falling sharply towards 4,000 ringgits per tonne in Kuala Lumpur in anticipation of record Malaysian stocks.
American market
Caution and wait-and-see attitude remain visible on the Chicago market. The relapse yesterday of the dollar index was partly compensated by the bearish influence of crude oil. The market is therefore especially looking forward to tonight's USDA report, and this while the latest Wasde reports have strongly surprised in terms of 2026 corn production in the United States. In soybeans, the market consensus is more in line with the USDA. Both agree on a record American harvest which, probably, will be revised up again.
Despite the announcement of a new exceptional sale of 110,000 t in Mexico, corn on Chicago ends the session slightly lower. Soybeans did the same, with soybean oil pulled down by the decrease of palm oil in Kuala Lumpur. No better for SRW wheat, which also lost a few cents last night on Chicago, with funds still selling on the eve of the negotiations between the United States, Ukraine and Russia scheduled for this week.
Black Sea market
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