Analysis 20/01/2026

European market

After several consecutive sessions of decline, the euro /dollar parity marks a rebound above 1.1650, after its lowest level yesterday since the end of November. This situation mechanically offered an element of upward adjustment of European prices during the day.
Activity on Euronext was also supported on Monday, while CME was closed because of the public holiday in the USA. More than 47,000 lots were exchanged on the wheat contract, all contracts combined, from March 2026 to December 2027. The demand from importing countries was also active yesterday, with the positioning of Saudi Arabia for purchases, a negotiation that suggests that more than 900,000 tons was contracted. Algeria has also finalized its tender for the purchase of soft wheat for the loading period in March. These new sales offer a view of the competitiveness of wheat from Black Sea and Argentine origins at the very beginning of the second part of the export campaign, compared to Western European origins.
Corn on Euronext was very dynamic, both on the number of lots traded and on the increase in prices observed compared to previous sessions. The March 2026 contract closed the session at its highest level for 4 months, close to 194 €/t. The price gap between corn and wheat is naturally followed by operators able to favour the use of one over the other, especially in the context of animal feed demand.
In rapeseed, after the upward movement of last week, the week begins with stabilization on the front contracts, which appear almost unchanged. The May 2026 contract is still evolving under €470/t. The movement is similar to Canada where canola hardly changed yesterday despite the prospect of a resumption of seed export flows to China, after the recent exchanges last week between the representatives of the two countries.

American market

The US market was closed yesterday because of the Martin Luther King JR. Day, public holiday. Exchanges will resume on CME contracts, incorporating a slight decline in the dollar observed this morning. The dollar index is indeed moving back below the 99-point level this morning.

Black Sea market

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