European market
The gap was wide between the statements made at the start of the week and the reality on the ground. While Turkey was discussing a plan aimed at revitalizing exports from Ukraine and Russia, attacks continued one after another, pushing any possibility of an agreement into the background. In fact, through its ministers, the Kremlin stated outright that no initiative could be considered under the current circumstances. For its part, the Ukrainian president announced that recent strikes had hit port infrastructure in Odessa. That was enough for prices to resume a strong upward trend.
The Euronext wheat Dec contract managed to close at a new high above 250 €/t. Corn followed the same path, also reaching a new high at 274 €/t. Finally, rapeseed confirmed the gains of recent sessions and moved closer to the psychological threshold of 570 €/t.
With shipments impossible from the main Black Sea players, international buyers are shifting their purchases to other origins. As a result, CVB origins have accumulated orders, which is now leading to a reorientation of flows toward Western Europe. France is benefiting from this and is therefore managing to move part of the port stocks that had built up until now.
Although these developments are currently attracting most of the market’s attention, some eyes remain on the fields. Rapeseed planting is progressing thanks to recent rainfall, but the return of dry weather is raising concerns about emergence difficulties in many regions. At the same time, the situation remains worrying for corn as the harvest approaches.
American market
There is no doubt that the situation in the Black Sea also contributed to the rise in US prices. SRW wheat is approaching the psychological threshold of 8 $/bu, while Dec corn soared and came up against 5.50 $/bu. The slowdown in flows from Ukraine and Russia is not something to be taken lightly and is disrupting global balances.
Meanwhile, soybeans broke through one threshold after another, quickly moving above 12.50 $/bu, then 12.70 $/bu, 12.90 $/bu and finally 13 $/bu, before now encountering resistance at 13.30 $/bu. By announcing that biofuel blending exemptions granted to small refineries would be transferred to larger facilities, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) made a major move. That alone was enough to boost the entire oilseed complex, as illustrated by soybean oil, which is nearing 70 ¢/lb and moving closer to its contract high of 75 ¢/lb.
At the same time, oil prices have factored in rising tensions in the Middle East and have returned to test the critical 90 $/barrel level, their highest point since last July.
Black Sea market
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