European market
The talks between Ukraine and Russia, under the aegis of the United States, will have reassured the markets at the end of last week. However, the gap still remains too large between the political declarations and the reality, quickly making operators aware that the export dynamic will struggle to get back in place. After the low port exports rate in August, the first days of September exports remain well below normal.
To cope with this situation, Russian operators have redirected part of their goods to Latvia. And the Baltic Prime Minister announced that his government planned to implement a tax of the order of 300% on cereals from Russia and Belarus. This alternative path could gradually close, enough to restore interest to Romanian, Bulgarian or even French origins.
Yesterday was nevertheless marked by the poker trick of Saudi Arabia, which canceled its wheat tender. By announcing that the prices were not in line with the reality of the market, the kingdom is betting on a de-escalation of tensions in the Black Sea, which, for the moment, has nothing guaranteed. A gradual return of international buyers is expected in the coming weeks, especially from Pakistan, Algeria and Morocco.
Geopolitics also forces us to focus on the Middle East, where the situation continues to get bogged down. This is reflected in energy prices, which remain firm, like American crude oil at more than $90/barrel or European gas, which is approaching the € 75/MWh zone.
In this tense context, rapeseed remains in its bullish channel. At €555/t on the November contract, the European seed faces a lack of goods from Ukraine, the usual supplier of Europe at this time of the year.
American market
The markets were closed yesterday for Labor Day.
Their reopening will be closely monitored as the week promises to be busy, between geopolitical developments and the publication of the USDA report scheduled for Friday, September 11th.
Black Sea market
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