European market
Prices yesterday marked a decline, both on the physical markets in Europe and on the Euronext futures market. The firmness of the euro against the dollar, the tension on energy prices and the unchanged situation regarding exports from Russian and Ukrainian ports failed to contain the downward movement recorded yesterday. Many operators highlight the crossing of several important technical levels, an element that has accentuated the enthusiasm of certain players to strengthen their selling positions, both in grains and oilseeds.
On Euronext, grain prices have fallen between -3.00 €/t and -3.50 € /t on the front contracts of corn and wheat. However, it is on oilseeds that the decline was most marked yesterday. The November 2026 contract recorded its largest downward movement for more than a month of -11.50 € / t compared to Friday's compensation, recalling the session of August 24 last year which had also been marked by a strong decline in prices.
In terms of fundamentals, the production estimates communicated by the European Union as part of the MARS program confirm a further deterioration in the yield potential of corn. From now on, an average yield of 6.50 t/ha is expected in Europe, down compared to previous estimates and above all significantly lower than last year's. This observation is also shared for other spring crops, such as sugar beets. On the other hand, an increase in the yield potential of sunflower of the order of 2% was observed compared to last month, with an average yield now expected at 1.96 t /ha, although strong disparities persist according to the countries.
American market
The first session of the week was marked by a sharp decline in prices for all products in Chicago, both in oilseeds and grains, accentuating the movement observed at the end of last week. Despite the firmness of crude oil prices recorded yesterday, the breakdown of technical points for many agricultural raw materials in Chicago was made possible following the summit between China and the USA, the conclusions of which finally turn out to be somewhat disappointing regarding the evolution of tariffs. Uncertainties also remain regarding the export potential of agricultural products after this meeting between China and the USA. In addition, the advance of harvests in the USA brings an additional element of pressure on prices in the short term.
The most marked downward movements were observed on meal and soybeans, closing respectively down -3.13% on the December 2026 contract and -2.33% on the November 2026 contract in Chicago. The downward movement was amplified by significant position sales by the funds, which are looking to secure their profits after the recent highs reached on the market. The USDA confirms an increase in harvests with now 17% of the areas done, in line with the average of recent years, while the ratings of crops judged to be in a "good to excellent" condition remain stable at 58%.
In grains, in Chicago, it was above all wheat that experienced a sharp decline yesterday, continuing its downward movement observed in recent sessions. The December 2026 contract closed yesterday below $6.90/bu, i.e. its lowest level since mid-August. The firmness of the dollar and the disappointing figures of the volumes exported in recent weeks weigh on the American prices, both for the SRW and HRW. For winter wheat, sowing is accelerating with now 27% of the areas announced as planted by the USDA.
The approach of the publication of quarterly stocks at the end of September is also weighing on prices. Some operators are indeed looking to adjust their positions before the publication of the USDA report expected tomorrow. Corn prices marked a decline yesterday, without returning to the lowest levels negotiated in session last Friday. The December 2026 contract closed down -5.25 cents at $5.23/bu, its lowest level for more than a month. As for soybeans, the USDA confirmed last night an increase in harvests, with now 18% of the harvested areas, in the average of recent years, while the ratings of crops judged in a "good to excellent" condition remained stable at 57%.
Black Sea market
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