European market
High temperatures are leading to an early harvest in France. While winter barley harvesting is reaching the latest regions, wheat cutting is already wrapping up in the earliest parts of the country. Rapeseed harvesting is also well underway and in full swing across many areas south of the Loire and the Seine.
The pressure observed on the market over the past week stems less from the new crop than from the macroeconomic context. With the euro/dollar exchange rate now at 1.1720—its highest level in nearly four years—French wheat has become even less competitive on the export market.
On Friday, FranceAgriMer released its weekly Céréobs report on crop conditions in France as of June 23:
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Soft wheat: 68 % rated “good to excellent,” unchanged from the previous week
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Winter barley: 64 % rated “good to excellent,” unchanged
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Durum wheat: 71 % rated “good to excellent,” unchanged
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Spring barley: 67 % rated “good to excellent,” unchanged
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Maize: 81 % rated “good to excellent,” down 2 points from the previous week
American market
After a deeply negative week in Chicago—where corn hit new contract lows and wheat and soybeans marked fresh lows in the current downtrend—prices managed to rebound on Friday thanks to end-of-week buying. This was more a case of short covering and position squaring by funds ahead of the end of the month, the quarter, and the semester—and especially ahead of Monday’s USDA report—than any emergence of bullish fundamentals for U.S. prices. Weather conditions remain favorable for the smooth progress of the winter wheat harvest and the healthy development of crops across the Corn Belt.
All eyes will therefore turn to Washington this Monday, where—as every June 30—the USDA will release what many traders consider one of the most important reports of the year. The quarterly U.S. grain stocks will shed light on the state of the old crop, just three months before the end of the marketing year for corn and soybeans. Meanwhile, the final acreage report will set the tone for the days ahead. Will the 2025 U.S. corn acreage exceed the already high expectations from March planting intentions? Will the 2025 U.S. soybean acreage fall even further below March forecasts? These are the key questions that will drive the market in the lead-up to 6:30 p.m. Paris time this evening.
Black Sea market
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