European market
Agricultural markets are evolving under the influence of a double geopolitical and fundamental factors. The very fragile truce between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz maintains a risk premium on energy. Crude oil prices in London and New York were evolving again yesterday around $100/barrel. If this situation still manages to support oilseeds, for which the biofuel outlet and energy are very important, the same cannot be said for grains. Funds back on sale for wheat and corn, especially in the context of an ample supply globally. The euro / dollar, still close to 1.1700 since the announcement of the truce remains an additional penalizing element for European grains at the end of the campaign.
The USDA April report dominated trading yesterday:
The world stocks of wheat for 2025/26 are increased by +6.1 Mt compared to last month to 283.12 Mt. They come out above expectations mainly due to an upturn in the 2025 harvests in Europe and Russia and a strong downward revision of food consumption in India.
In corn, global stocks for 2025/26 are up +2 Mt compared to last month. They come out above expectations at 294.8 Mt.
Only soybeans see their global stocks in 2025/26 lowered by -0.52 Mt to 124.79 Mt thanks to crushing which is progressing again in the world at 369.35 Mt against 359.25 Mt on the previous campaign.
In this context, it is logically wheat which was penalized the most yesterday on Euronext with a closing decline of -2.25 € /t compared to the previous day on the close. The decline in corn is slightly less pronounced between -1.50 and -2.00 €/t on the front contract. Despite this downward influence of grains, rapeseed is closing between -1 and unchanged depending on the contracts.
American market
The risk premium linked to the Strait of Hormuz briefly supported prices at the beginning of yesterday's session on Chicago before fading in the face of the weight of fundamentals, illustrating the hierarchy of forces present: ample stocks now outweigh geopolitics for US grains.
The US wheat stock was raised by the USDA by +0.2 Mt to 25.5 Mt due to an increase in imports and a decline in domestic consumption. The US corn stock is meanwhile left unchanged at a level of 54 Mt at the highest for 7 years. US carry-over stock for soybeans was left unchanged at 9.52 Mt. However, note a transfer of 1 Mt between exports revised downwards to 41.9 Mt against 42.9 Mt last month and domestic crushing increased to 74.1 Mt against 73.1 Mt last month.
In this context, wheat prices closed last night at the lowest since March 4 in Chicago and dragged corn in their downward wake. Only soybeans are resisting, and remain buoyed by the hope of a Trump-Xi meeting in mid-May likely to reopen Chinese purchases of American soybeans by China.
The USDA published yesterday the following weekly export sales for the United States for 2025/26 :
Wheat: 164,000 t
Corn: 1.361 Mt
Soybeans 295,000 t.
Black Sea market
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