Analysis 22/09/2026

European market

The first session of the week was supported by the sharp rebound in prices on the American market, favouring the adjustment of European prices, especially since the euro/dollar parity is trying to stabilize above the level of 1.1460. Without concrete developments in the face of the blocking of exports from Russian and Ukrainian ports, the European grain market remains firm. The announcement of ongoing exchanges between Turkey and Russia in order to secure transit in the region does not seem, at this stage, to reassure operators. Indeed, the numerous announcements and discussions of the last weeks have not finally led to a tangible improvement in the situation. Wheat prices on Euronext rose by about €2/t on the front contracts yesterday.
Corn harvests are progressing in France, with a still marked disappointment regarding yields, including on irrigated corn. Corn prices are rebounding and are  returning to trading, on Euronext's November2026 contract, close to €270/t, erasing the easing movement observed over the past two weeks.
Firmness was also visible on rapeseed yesterday, supported by the rise in soybean and canola prices in the United States. The November 2026 rapeseed contract on Euronext is approaching its highs of the past week, back above 555 €/t. Dry weather conditions continue to cause concern in France, both for the plantings that have not yet been finalized and for the condition of crops already seeded at the end of September.

American market

The approach of the meeting between the Chinese and American presidents animates the Chicago market, in the perspective of a confirmation of important purchases of agricultural raw materials, and more particularly of soybeans. The American stakeholders hope for new announcements, either concerning commitments on significant volumes of goods, or, failing that, on the rapid realization of new export business.
Soybean prices on the November 2026 contract increased by 24.50 cents yesterday, approaching their recent highs. They closed the session above $13/bu.
Corn prices, which harvest now exceeds 13% of acreage according to the latest estimates from the USDA, have also shown a strong increase, up by 2.9% yesterday on the December 2026 contract. This contract has bounced back on its support zone to return above $5.40 /bu at the end of the day, gradually approaching its highs of the month. The condition of the crops is considered stable, with 57% of the areas rated from good to excellent. Moreover, the maturity of the crops is now experiencing a strong acceleration.
However, the upward movement observed on wheat yesterday was less marked than on corn. The December 2026 contract has also rebounded after approaching, at the end of last week, the level of $7.10/bu. Prices have returned above $7.25/bu at the close after reaching $7.30/bu in session. In the United States, the sowing of the next harvest is progressing rapidly, with 17% of the winter wheat areas already sown according to USDA data.

Black Sea market

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