European market

After the previous day’s decline, the oil market attempted a modest rebound yesterday. In the end, prices have been consolidating since last Friday within a wide range between 90 and 100 $/barrel for WTI in New York, as the market waits for new developments.
The forceful rhetoric from Donald Trump and his ministers is fueling hopes for the bears, while the lack of any concrete acceleration in flows through the Strait of Hormuz is sustaining the bulls’ concerns.

This relatively limited stabilization in oil is, for now, halting the downward trend of the euro/dollar, which has moved clearly back above the key 1.1500 level to flirt with 1.1550.

Without fresh upward momentum from oil and facing a stronger euro, grain prices continued yesterday the decline that began the day before. The grain market, which has become more volatile since the beginning of the conflict, is exposed to profit‑taking by funds and increased selling from producers in the major global grain-producing regions, all within a fundamentally heavy context.

Despite this same context, rapeseed managed to keep its head above water yesterday and even staged a rebound of more than 10 €/t during the session. Rapeseed was mirroring the rebound in soybean oil in Chicago and canola in Winnipeg. In the end, for the past two weeks, Euronext rapeseed for the May 2026 expiry has been trading within the same wide price range between 500 and 520 €/t.

American market

Soybeans are in full hesitation. They are struggling to recover from Monday’s sharpest single‑day drop in 3 years. However, announcements of a possible rescheduling within 5 to 6 weeks of the meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are restoring some prospects of trade agreements between China and the United States. Above all, it is the continued firmness of soybean oil that is supporting the complex and has allowed a rebound in the bean.

Corn, which is currently in full competition with soybeans for the conquest of the US 2026 acreage, is following the latter’s fluctuations from a distance. Corn prices thus closed yesterday near unchanged and mixed depending on the expiries.

Between morning frosts and high temperatures, climate risk is increasing for winter wheat in the southern Great Plains in the United States, already facing a significant moisture deficit in recent months. The decline in crop ratings in Kansas and Oklahoma published Monday evening reflects this. Nevertheless, it was lower that wheat was heading yesterday in Chicago in a context of profit‑taking and reminders of the fundamentally heavy backdrop.

Black Sea market

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