European market

Calm has returned to the agricultural commodity markets. However, the atmosphere remains heavy in the current context, and uncertainties are still numerous. Global demand is too timid to reverse the trend, especially as global growth continues to be questioned.

On the ground, weather conditions are generally favorable in the main producing regions, although there is still some time before the harvest. This week, the German cooperative association confirmed the country's strong potential, estimating wheat production at 21.41 million tons, an increase of 15.7 % compared to last year. Recent rainfall has improved conditions, leading the association to work with the following figures:

• Winter barley: 8.8 million tons, up 1 % from last year.

• Spring barley: 1.76 million tons, up 6 %.

• Rapeseed: 3.97 million tons, up 10 %.

On the trade side, Europe continues to take advantage of the tariff pause to import American goods, particularly soybeans and maize. The pace of imports is particularly strong, especially from Portugal, Italy, and Spain.

American market

As with European markets, American markets were taking a pause as few new factors allowed for significant movement. Export sales remained within expectations, although they confirmed their dynamism in corn, reaching 1.15 million tons. As for soybeans, the pace remains steady, supported by Europe's strong import activity. Meanwhile, Japanese media reported yesterday that the country intends to increase purchases of American products to compensate for the loss of the Chinese market. This announcement comes at a time when negotiations are actively underway across the globe.

On the ground, corn planting continues without major weather disruptions affecting fieldwork. The window of opportunity remains open, and there are still many acres to be sown, but forecasts remain reassuring for now.

Finally, the dollar’s fluctuation remains a key factor, influenced by statements from Donald Trump, who has been less prominent in recent public discourse.

Black Sea market

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