European market
The heat wave persists and extends towards the east of Europe with highs that will approach 40°C this weekend in Germany, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia etc. Even the northernmost growing areas in Scandinavia or the Baltic Countries will experience highs of nearly 35 °C.
However, the nervousness observed at the beginning of the week on grains listed on Euronext calmed down markedly yesterday. Indeed, the context of international competition remains a brake on the progress of European prices. This is particularly the case for wheat which closes down by -3.50 € / t to 206 €/t in September 2026, erasing the gains of the previous day. The correction is less marked for corn, which remains the most at-risk crop on the European continent. Thus, the November 2026 contracs is down by €1/t in closing at €221.25 /t.
Rapeseed, meanwhile, is evolving against the grain trend with an increase yesterday of +3 €/t at 518.75 € t in August 2026 while its harvest is progressing rapidly in France and is already reaching the north of Paris.
In the background, the euro / dollar marks a pause in its downward dynamics committed for a week following the 1st official speech by Kevin Warsch, the new president of the FED, who showed himself relatively "hawkish". The 1.1330/ 1.1350 area acts as technical support after a weekly fall of almost -2.5%.
In the current context of concern related to the heat wave, the weekly publication of the state of crops in France via the FranceAgriMer Cereal report will be followed with great attention this Friday morning.
American market
After a relatively calm start to the week on the Chicago market with prices continuing their downward path, nervousness returned to the markets yesterday. Corn and soybeans marked a rebound in prices that erases the decline of the previous two to three sessions. After a particularly wet and cool June, the weather forecast is changing to dry and warm for the beginning of July on the northwestern half of the US Corn Belt.
Wheat is rebounding out of sympathy with corn, but in a much more measured way given the still very heavy international competition on the Black Sea side.
As every Thursday, the USDA published yesterday the weekly export sales in the United States :
Wheat 504,000 t in 2026/27
Corn 743,000 t in 2025/26 and 736,000 t in 2026/27
Soybeans 455,000 t in 2025/26 and 902,000 t in 2026/27.
Black Sea market
With the approach of a wheat harvest that promises to be ample throughout the Black Sea area, activity is gaining momentum on the Black Sea Wheat contract (CVB) of the CME. Since the beginning of the week, the exchanges have been focusing on the September 2026 contract, where the open position has now reached 500 lots. The clearing price was displayed last night at $ 234.75/t on this contract, down -1 $ /t compared to the previous day.
