European market
The wheat market remains undecided. The prices are divided between the need to stabilize after a fall of €50/t since the beginning of the year and the still very tough export competition with Black Sea wheat on the other hand. The December 2025 wheat contract on Euronext which closed last Friday evening up + €0.25/t at €189.75/t, marked a weekly increase of + €0.75/t.
Same configuration for corn. With a close up by +€1.25/t on Friday evening at €186.75/t, Euronext's November 2025 contract signs a weekly increase of +€0.75/t.
The rapeseed marked the strongest weekly increase of +€11.75/t closing up by +€6.50/t at €473/t on Friday evening for the November 2025 contract.
In its monthly report published Friday evening, the USDA has posted the following estimates of global stocks for 2025-26:
Wheat: 264.1 Mt against 260.1 Mt expected last month and 262.4 Mt in 2024-25
Corn: 281.4 Mt against 282.5 Mt expected last month and 284.2 Mt in 2024-25
Soybeans: 124 Mt against 124.9 Mt expected last month and 123.6 Mt in 2024-25.
In the European Union, 2025-26 wheat production is raised to 140.1 Mt against 138.25 Mt last month while 2025-26 corn production is reduced to 55.3 Mt against 58 Mt last month.
As announced to our subscribers for several weeks by Argus Media analysts, the USDA has raised the production of the 8 top wheat exporting regions by +9.15 Mt compared to last month on a new record of 406.6 Mt. The wheat stock among major exporters would peak at the highest since 2018-19 according to the USDA at 66 Mt. The Argus forecast is well above.
American market
All products were up last Friday evening on Chicago despite a USDA report.
The USDA surprised in corn with an increase in the US area of +1.4mn acres to 98.7mn acres. Despite a slight correction in yield to 186.7 bu/acre against 188.8 bu/acre expected last month, US 2025-26 production is climbing again according to the USDA to peak at 427.11 Mt. An increase of +2.6 Mt in US exports to 75.6 Mt allows the stock to be revised down by -0.2 Mt to 53.6 Mt.
The US soybean area 2025-26 is also revised up by the USDA to 81.1mn acres against 80.9mn acres expected last month. This compensates for a slight downward revision in yield by-0.1 bu/acre to 53.5 bu/acre. Thus, US 2025 production gains +0.2 Mt to 117 Mt and the stock rises +0.3 Mt to 8.2 Mt.
In wheat, while the 2025-26 US production is confirmed at 52.5 Mt already posted last month by the USDA, US exports have risen by +0.7 Mt to 24.5 Mt, which leads to a 2025-26 stock down by -0.7 Mt compared to last month at 23 Mt.
Black Sea market
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