European market
The conflict in the Middle East remains at the center of all concerns. Many events took place during the weekend, but the closure of the financial markets saved them from overreactions. The week therefore resumes as the previous one had ended, with a very firm crude oil market but still waiting for the outcome of the conflict in the coming days. This is how WTI is sailing just below $100/barrel in New York and Brent in London is hovering just above this symbolic level.
Under pressure in this situation, the euro/dollar is at its lowest since the beginning of last August. It is heading towards 1.1400 after successively breaking at the end of last week its supports in place for the last 6 months at 1.16, 1.155 and 1.150. In addition to Europe's greater energy dependence on the United States, the euro/dollar suffers from an unchanged rate outlook from the FED which will meet this week and this in a context of increasing inflation in the United States at the beginning of the year.
The firmness of crude oil and the decline of the euro/dollar are the two forces that supported grain prices on Euronext on Friday. Wheat and corn each mark a new closing high in the current movement at respectively €210.50/t in May 2026 and €212.00/t in June 2026. Only rapeseed remained struggling on Friday, under the blow of weekend profit-taking and this in a context of funds already very strongly exposed to buying on this market.
On the ground, the weather that alternates rain and sun is favourable for winter crops in France. Winter barley has remained last week at 81% from good to excellent according to FranceAgriMer against 70% last year to date. Wheat meanwhile remains at 84% from good to excellent compared to 74% last year to date.
The spring barley sowing was able to advance significantly before the rains returned. FranceAgriMer shows a realization of 87% of the plantings on March 9 against 32% on March 2, which is closer to the good performance of 88% on March 9, 2025. Tthe five-year average to date is 80% of sowing carried out.
American market
The firmness of crude oil before the weekend and further geopolitical risks supported prices on Friday on the Chicago market. The funds continue to reposition themselves for the purchase of grains. The CFTC's COT report published Friday evening also shows the strongest week of purchases by corn funds in Chicago in 7 years. If corn benefits from the link with energy through its powerful ethanol sector in the United States, wheat is not left out and remains an important geopolitical marker in the eyes of investors.
Soybeans closed more tentatively Friday night in Chicago. The funds are already strongly positioned to buy on the soybean complex and expose the latter to profit-taking, especially at the end of the week.
In terms of weather, HRW winter wheats remain under surveillance on the southern Great Plains. To the persistence of the water deficit should be added a sharp rise in temperatures throughout the week exceeding by 10 degrees the normal season.
Black Sea market
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