European market
Something rare for many, many months, last week ended with a notable firmness on the grain market. In Paris as in Chicago, the funds explan this movement. They are massively buying up their short positions in the face of the multiplication of climatic and geopolitical risks. The failure of the latest negotiations between Ukraine and Russia or the threats of imminent war between the United States and Iran are worrying. In terms of climate, the market integrates the excesses of rainfall of recent weeks in Western Europe and not enough on the south of the Great Plains in the United States.
In this context, Euronext wheat on March 2026 contract has gained €6.25/t over the last two sessions of the past week to close at €197.00/t at the highest since November 6th. Much more timid, corn only rose by €2.5/t at the same time to close Friday evening at €191.75/t in March 2026 contract. After having passed above wheat, the price of corn on the Euronext stock exchange is therefore back below now.
Rapeseed movements were more timid. The May 2026 contract closes on a decline of -4.25 € / t to 488.5 €/t with the presence since the middle of last week of a strong selling pressure approaching the resistance level of 495 €/t.
After Egypt, which has bought a lot of wheat on the international scene over the past two weeks, Algeria is returning to its turn to purchases. The OAIC has indeed just launched a call for tenders until tomorrow 24/02 for shipments of soft wheat ranging from the 2nd half of April to the 2nd half of May.
In France, the conditions of winter crops continue to deteriorate after weeks of incessant rains. The latest cereal publication from FranceAgriMer reports the following conditions as of February 16:
Soft wheat: 88% from "good to excellent" compared to 91% the previous week and 74% last year to date
Winter barley: 84% from "good to excellent" against 88% last week and 69% last year to date.
American market
Wheat was in the focus on Chicago. While corn and soybeans have been more discreet, US wheat contracts, whether SRW or HRW, continued their upward momentum at the end of last week. The funds have been on purchases since Wednesday and continue their "short-covering" movement. In addition to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and in the Black Sea, in addition to the water deficit which is increasing on the Great Plains after an episode of cold with still uncertain consequences, discussions are animated around the reduction of the areas of the next US wheat harvest announced by the USDA.
Corn prices are also finding support through the expected decline to 94mn acres of the US areas in 2026.
After the expected increase in US acreage in 2026, soybean prices have especially been penalized by the Supreme Court's decision to cancel the customs duties put in place by the Trump administration. Indeed, the prospects for new Chinese purchases that have been stimulating soybean prices in recent weeks in Chicago could be called into question in the absence of US taxes. The situation remains nevertheless confused with the promise of new taxes by Donald Trump.
The USDA published on Friday the weekly US export sales :
Wheat 288 000 t
Corn 1.47 Mt
Soybeans 798,000 t.
Black Sea market
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