European market
After the surge of optimism at the beginning of the week, agricultural markets showed more caution yesterday. Prices remained hesitant throughout the day, as operators were very prudent ahead of the announcement—scheduled after the U.S. market closed—of the so-called "reciprocal" tariffs imposed by the United States.
While some countries, such as Mexico and Canada, are spared from additional tariffs under the USMCA free trade agreement, the tariffs are still significant for dozens of countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 49%, depending on the country and the products.
Although the minimum rate of 10% is lower than the anticipated 20%, a period of uncertainty begins for the global economy. Financial markets fear trade retaliation, a slowdown in commerce, or even shrinking profit margins for multinational corporations.
In this context, U.S. stock index futures are sharply down. While energy products are not affected by U.S. tariffs, oil prices are nonetheless experiencing a significant decline. The price of crude is dropping to $70 per barrel in New York amid concerns about demand. The protectionist measures taken by the Trump administration in the United States initially have the effect of weakening the dollar. As a result, the euro/dollar exchange rate rises again to 1.0950, even though the European Union is expected to be penalized by the 20% tariffs imposed by the United States—going up to 25% for automobiles.
American market
The "Liberation Day" announced several days ago by Donald Trump arrived last night at 10 PM, Paris time. Numerous new tariffs were imposed on April 2nd by the American administration on many countries.
Mexico and Canada are spared from the new "tariffs" under the USMCA agreement. This is why canola on the Winnipeg market is staying afloat this Thursday morning. American wheat and corn will retain their major outlet, which is Mexico.
However, U.S. exports to other countries, particularly to Asia, are under the threat of trade retaliation, notably from China. Hence, a decline in prices this morning on the electronic market in Chicago. Soybeans, the most exposed to China, are the hardest hit.
The technical supports of recent weeks for wheat, corn, and soybeans for May 2025 contracts in Chicago remain preserved for now despite the overnight turmoil. The dollar's decline still provides support for commodities.
Weather conditions in the United States have become almost anecdotal. Yet, torrential rains are arriving in the southeastern Corn Belt, posing the risk of delayed corn planting in this key area and flooding of SRW wheat in the valleys. Meanwhile, HRW wheat remains in a state of water deficit.
Black Sea market
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