Analysis 21/10/2026

European market

The corn market is the only agriculture commodity firming on Euronext at the beginning of the week while wheat and rapeseed see their prices slide downwards.
The corn harvest ends very early even in the usually later regions of the English Channel coast and eastern France. The French collectors find it difficult to have the necessary volumes. The Euronext corn November 2026 contract, less than 10 days before its expiration, returned  again yesterday close to the symbolic level of €300/t. French corn resists any external influence. It shows record price differences with other origins, whether European or international, in order to stimulate demand rationing and imports.
Although attractive, in this context, in livestock feed, European wheat remains under downward pressure at the beginning of the week. Its export dynamics are not yet enough to counter a selling pressure that is mainly taking place in the wake of the falling corn and wheat Chicago markets. The daily amplitude of €6.50/t on Euronext's December2026 contract shows this strong opposition of the bullish and bearish forces that are currently fighting.
The bearish North American influence also falls on the European rapeseed. The February 2027 contract marks its lowest close since last August 27 at €545/t. It must be said that across the Atlantic, the pressure of the harvest is seizing both canola prices, which have broken the 800 CAD/t in Winnipeg, and soybeans which have previously broken its major support of $12.80/t in Chicago.

American market

The funds remain on the move on the Chicago market with futher positions' liquidation. All products close in the red, with the exception of rapeseed oil. The arguments remain the same as the previous days: lack of export competitiveness in wheat and corn, harvest pressure in corn and soybeans. The downward movement is self-fueling and brings the prices of the various products back to their level of last summer.
The market has therefore hardly taken into account the delays in sowing and harvesting published in the latest Crop Progress report from the USDA on Monday evening, given the favourable weather expected all this week for an acceleration of autumn work in the United States.
The market also seems to have snubbed the announcement by the USDA of a new exceptional export sale of 612,000 t of American soybeans to China.
The announcement on Monday by the US government of $8 billion in aid granted to American farmers in the face of high gas oil prices is perceived as an incentive to plant wheat during this autumn period.

Black Sea market

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