Analysis 22/06/2026

European market

The week of atypical weather begins in France and over a large part of Western Europe with a heatwave judged as historic by its extent, its length and its intensity. The impact of such a phenomenon on crops raises many questions, especially for spring crops in France which, like some early corn, are dangerously approaching their critical stage of flowering.
The winter grains harvest is well underway with winter barley harvest that are gradually coming up north of the Seine. The wheat harvest is underway in the early regions of the Atlantic Coast and the South-West.
After a fall of almost 10% last week, driven by the optimism aroused by the memorandum of understanding signed between the United States and Iran, WTI oil finds significant support around $75/barrel in New York. The euro / dollar meanwhile remains weakened by the rather harsh tone employed last Wednesday by Kevin Warsh, the new president of the FED, and is now at 1.1450.
With the stabilization of crude oil and the support of the euro/dollar, rapeseed was able to preserve on Friday the psychological support of €500/t on Euronext's August 2026 contract. It closes with an increase of +€2.25/t to €504.25/t.
Corn meanwhile remains supported by climate concerns in France and more generally especially in the south of Europe. Euronext's November2026 contract gains €1/t to €213/on Friday's session and +€9/t over the past week. This is enough to widen the gap with Euronext December 2026 wheat, which was only up by +1 €/t last week.
Despite the support of the euro/dollar and climate fears in Europe, the wheat market remained penalized at the very end of last week by the specter of strong Black Sea competition.
In its grain publication of Friday, FranceAgriMer reports on the following growing conditions for France as of June 15, 2026 :

Soft wheat: 76% for good to excellent down -1 point on the week and against 68% last year.
Winter barley: 73% for good to excellent down by -2 points over the week and compared to 64% last year.
Durum wheat: 64% for good to excellent, unchanged over the week and compared to 71% last year.
Spring barley: 67% for good to excellent, down by -1 point over the week and against 67% last year.
Corn: 84% for good to excellent, down -2 points on the week and against 83% last year.

American market

The Chicago market will reopen this Monday after a long holiday weekend for the Juneteenth or Emancipation Day.
In this context and despite notable export sales published on Friday by the USDA, profit-taking weighed on prices at the last close on Thursday evening.

Black Sea market

Click here to request full access to the AgriMarkets report to find out more about the Black Sea region, and follow price trends in Russia on a daily basis.