European market
The grain market in Europe ended last week in a bearish mood. The first harvest pressure on US and Black Sea wheat is pushing prices down on the Euronext wheat contract. This is having a similar effect on other products.
With 6 days to go to the closely watched legislative elections in France, the euro/dollar exchange rate is trending downwards to 1.0690, which is providing some export competitiveness for Western European origins.
The arrival of summer weather conditions should enable the 2024 harvest to gather momentum in France, even if rain is already threatening for the weekend. The question of excess moisture over the past few weeks and, more generally, over the past few months continues to fuel debate.
Soft wheat remained stable last week, according to FranceAgriMer's CéréObs programme, with 62% "good to excellent", compared with 83% last year to date. The same applies to durum wheat, with 63% "good to excellent", compared with 77% last year.
Winter barley lost 1 point over the week to 64% "good to excellent" compared to 84% last year. Spring barley, which had been holding up well up to now, also fell by 2 points over the week to 73% "good to excellent", compared with 77% last year to date.
Corn sowings rose by 2 points over the past week to reach 99% complete, with 93% of the emerged plants compared with an average of 100% to date.
American market
While soybeans managed to close higher, corn and wheat traded lower in Chicago on Friday. Wheat remains the most depressed market at the moment, under the weight of US harvest pressure and fund selling.
Generally speaking, US grains are currently being penalised by the strengthening dollar index, which has reached its highest level since the end of April.
Weekly export sales in the United States last week came in above expectations for wheat, at 578,7000 tonnes. However, they fell short of expectations for corn, with just 605,000 t. In soybeans, weekly export sales in the USA last week reached 640,500 t.
The weather remains the key factor at the moment in the United States, with the Corn Belt cut in two over the past few days. The West has been hit by heavy rainfall, while the East has remained fairly dry. The rainfall forecast by the weather models for the next 2 weeks in the driest areas will therefore be closely monitored.
This week will be marked above all by the USDA's report on quarterly stocks and spring sowings in the United States on Friday 28 June.
Black Sea market
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