Analysis 25/03/2016

European market

Markets were in a positive note to end the week before the Easter’s long weekend. This was due to the good competitiveness of European origins on export markets, a slight decline of the Euro and some concerns about the cold snap during last weekend in Black sea area.

In France, expected rains for the weekend will be beneficial, while most of spring sowing are now achieved if we except corn of course.

On the international stage, Egypt did only buy one boat of 60 000 t of French wheat during its tender at 189.20 $/t CIF, 179 $/t FOB + 10.20 $/t for fret. Moreover, we can note the sale of 260 000 t of US corn to Taiwan and the purchase by Japan of 126 000 t of wheat, multiple origins.

Markets should pay attention from now to the USDA’s report released on the 31st of March.

Rapeseed prices were benefitting of the steadiness of the palm, while crude oil was consolidating current levels waiting for the OPEC’s meeting next month.

American market

The week ended quietly on the CBOT yesterday. Market operators were not confident taking consequent positions before the long weekend and the USDA report on the March 31st. US Markets are closed today but will be opened, contrary to Euronext, on Monday.

Weekly export numbers were below the operators’ expectations in corn but in line for wheat and soybean, even though the volumes are inferior to last week.

Traders are forecasting high planted areas in corn, around 90 M ha but see a decrease in soybean with 85 M ha. These expectations are supporting the soybean complex prices.

Funds were net buyers of corn for 5 000 lots, and 6500 lots of soybean. They were neutral on wheat.

Black Sea market

Ukrainian agro-meteorological service has warned market operators that the cold snap registered at the beginning of the week will lead to a drop of winter crops yields. On the top of soils, temperatures fell down to -15°C in Zaporojie and Lugansk oblasts (south east of the country) and -10°C in Kharkov and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts during the night of the 19th to the 20th of March. The head of the service said these conditions will be responsible of a reduction of crop stand in these regions. Concerning spring crops, no specific damages as germination did not take place yet, if we except Odessa’s region.

As part of our EAT’s program, we will closely monitor the fields of these major regions at the beginning of next month to see the impact of these severe conditions on the production.