European market
Cereals’ balance sheets remain heavy, especially in Europe and even more in France with a report stock forecast at 6 Mt.
According FranceAgrimer, 92% of wheat are in good to excellent conditions, 1 point under last week, but staying on a high level, announcing a 2016’s plentiful harvest if we except possible climatic incidents by then. On a vegetative point of view, early growing conditions are reflected by 47 % of wheat at 1 cm spike stage vs 17% last year to date.
Euronext announced on Friday the suspension of its wheat contract n°3 due to illiquidity, operators still favor the n°2.
Corn prices are staying under pressure, consequence of a strong competitiveness from the wheat with animal feed makers. Operators will monitor closely the seeding progression in USA to appreciate if bearish trend will carry on in coming months or if, on the other way round, the leading market can reverse the trend.
Rapeseed prices are still benefitting for the steadiness of the palm and crude oil. The palm output is affected in Malaysia by the consequences of El Nino phenomenon.
On the international stage, we can note the purchase by Algeria of 150 000 t of durum wheat last week, probably from Canada. India did cancel its corn tender of 240 000 t.
American market
The US market hasn’t evolved so much on Friday, in the lack of fundamental news. To start the week, funds are buying back a bit of their short positions, following lower temperatures observed this weekend. However, the risk of frost remains unlikely.
Funds were net sellers on corn on Friday for 4000 lots, neutral on soybean and on wheat.
The Informa analyst has re-examined upward its estimations of corn plantings for the US to 89.5 M ha against a decrease on soybean plantings at 84 M ha. These numbers would be confirmed by the USDA report next Thursday on the 31st March.
Corn sowings will start soon. If the weather conditions remain mild, the balance will stay heavy in a context of stronger presence of Argentina on the international stage.
Black Sea market
In the north of Ukrainian plains and the central district of Russia, snow is back. The layer is not too thick but enough to hamper the progress of sowing and fertilizer applications in these regions. Temperatures (-3°C) are not cold enough to keep the ground firm for fertilization works. An improvement of conditions is expected by the end of the week. Works should not resume before the return to dry soil conditions probably at the beginning of April. It could delay the progress of Ukrainian bartley’s seeding.
