European market

The fight remains strong between geopolitics and fundamentals. If the events in the Middle East have brought tension, the ample supply in the global balance sheets on grains is now taking over. This is mainly the case for wheat, with prices falling back below the €205/t zone. Corn at the end of June, for its part, manages to stay at around €280-210/t.
The week is marked by the return of Algeria with a tender for soft wheat. The questions concern more the prices than the origins, since France remains absent. This raises the question of French export outlets at the beginning of the next season, at a time when Morocco is moving towards a promising harvest. Without Algeria and without Morocco for a few months, French operators will have a lot to do in 2026/27.
From a competitiveness point of view, eyes are also turning to the euro/dollar parity, which is likely to change the balances. Below 1.16, the euro vs US dollar parity shows significant volatility in recent weeks. The duration of the conflict in the Middle East will have an impact on the central banks' rate decision.
In the medium term, the question of planting crops arises, since the increase in fertilizer prices could upset the sowing intentions. This element is already visible on spring crops: some producers claim to be reviewing their plan in order to reduce corn, considered too expensive to produce and dry.

American market

Beyond the statements of Donald Trump, who continue to blow hot and cold on the energy markets and, by ricochet, on those of grains, operators are waiting, several events will soon animate the prices.
The first concerns the reception, at the White House, of the US farmers at the end of March. This meeting should coincide with the announcement of the new mandates for the incorporation of biofuels. Operators wait for the EPA's decision, which could bring a bit of volatility.
The second key element will be the publication, next week, of the Prospective Plantings report. As fertilizer prices soar in the United States, producers are also reviewing their plans and could reduce the corn planted areas. Such a decision would be likely to support a corn market where global consumption remains increasing.
Now with net positions that have become buyers again, financial operators are ready in the event of a market reversal and a lull on the geopolitical front.

Black Sea market

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