European market

War is spreading in the Middle East with numerous retaliatory actions from Iran, including against Persian Gulf countries and their oil or gas production facilities. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is close to a total shutdown. Oil prices are therefore rising sharply, with WTI in New York closing up +6.28 % at 71.23 $/barrel and Brent in London up +6.7 % at 77.74 $/barrel yesterday evening. However, a certain sense of relativism allowed prices to ease after hitting their early‑session highs.

On the grain market, the mood remained mixed, with the relative support from oil clashing with the weight of global fundamentals. The feverish spike seen at the opening across all agricultural products traded on Euronext met increasing selling pressure as many chart resistance zones approached.

Meanwhile, alongside movements in energy and the conflict, currencies are adjusting rapidly. The euro is dropping sharply against the dollar. The latter is regaining its role as a safe haven, while Europe sees its energy supply threatened. As a result, the euro/dollar exchange rate is returning to its lowest levels since 20 January, around 1.1680, providing additional support to European prices.

American market

Driven on Friday by expectations of a conflict with Iran over the weekend, grain prices on the Chicago market eased slightly yesterday in the well-known logic of “buy the rumor and sell the news.” US wheat, clearly lacking competitiveness on the international stage, suffered the most, falling by -14 to -17 cents at yesterday’s close in Chicago. The return of rain across the Great Plains is being closely monitored, with a zone still facing severe moisture deficit around the Oklahoma panhandle.

The pullback is more limited on corn, which has shown lower volatility than wheat in recent weeks. The dynamics of US exports remain an important short-term support, while operators monitor corn planting and harvesting in South America.

Soybeans are not escaping the broader correction either, with many questions arising around Chinese demand amid a geopolitical and energy landscape disrupted by US actions in the Middle East.

Black Sea market

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