European market
Two-speed session was seen on grains at the beginning of the week. The prices were traded in the green at the opening before going down. The caution remains in order regarding the geopolitical situation, in particular the events in the Black Sea. The gap is widening between political statements and reality on the ground.
If the Ukrainian president recently mentioned the need to find an agreement in order to preserve grain shipments and accelerate exports, the situation is quite different in fact. The strikes continue on both sides of the Black Sea, naturally causing a marked slowdown in flows from this region. In this context, local prices remain under pressure, weakening part of the economy of both countries.
International buyers have to deal with these geopolitical events, which benefits Romanian and Baltic wheat. The demand for these origins remains sustained and the dynamics of shipments remains favourable. Another key point: France is also gaining some market share, and this trend should be even more visible in the coming weeks. Indeed, ONICL has announced the reopening of Moroccan imports from mid-September, which should particularly benefit French offers.
In its latest report published on Monday, the European MARS office updated its yield estimates in Europe. In addition to the renewal of the average yield of soft wheat in the European Union at 5.88 t/ha, the report is marked by a downward revision of the potential of corn. The European yield is now estimated at 6.61 t/ha compared to 6.93 t/ha last month, but further revisions may still occur in the coming months.
On the oilseed market, rapeseed has given way technically, recording a sharp decline that brings it closer to €520/t on the November contract. Beyond the announced rains, which could offer producers a favourable window to start sowing in France, the pressure has mainly come from the United States. By announcing the extension of the deadline granted to refiners to demonstrate their compliance with the regulations on the incorporation of biofuels, the EPA has eased their regulatory constraints. Soybean oil has fallen sharply across the Atlantic, a movement that has also had repercussions on European markets.
American market
The American operators had once again focused on the crop conditions at the beginning of the week. Now, 57% of corn areas are judged to be in a good to excellent condition, which is three points less than last week. This figure comes out below expectations, allowing US prices to return to the $5.20/bushel area on the December contract. This degradation of the potential goes hand in hand with the recent publication of the results of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, much lower than the estimates of the USDA. In soybeans, this same proportion drops by one point, to 60% for good to excellent.
Among the other significant elements, the situation remains very uncertain regarding the implementation of new taxes by the Trump administration. The president's desire to tax products imported from Canada is not without consequences for canola, since almost all of the Canadian oil is destined for the American market. Caution therefore remains the order of the day for operators.
The export inspections stand out as follows :
Corn: 1.3mn t, below expectations
Soybeans: 421,000 t, in line with expectations
Wheat: 426,000 t, in line with expectations.
Black Sea market
Click here to request full access to the AgriMarkets report to find out more about the Black Sea region, and follow price trends in Russia on a daily basis.
