Yesterday afternoon, markets retreated after the release of poor US export figures well under traders’ expectations. Is this movement a one-off or a more sustainable trend caused by a lower demand considering current high level of prices?
On the international market, Japan bought about 57 000 t of milling wheat sourced from Australia. Taiwan is seeking 100 000 t of US milling wheat.
The IGC said that the next world wheat production could amount to 790 Mt vs. 773 Mt for the current crop. The European Commission has revised upward its estimation of wheat exports to third countries to 27 Mt vs. 26 Mt seen last month. The carry over stock is then revised down to 9.5 Mt vs. 9.9 Mt last month. Rapeseed imports are revised up to 6 Mt vs. 5.5 Mt estimated last month.
On oilseeds, the divergence between nearby deliveries and those of the future crop has widened. On the rapeseed, the May contract has earned some more ground while 2021’s deliveries retreated. Volatility remains high on veg oils.
This morning, the dollar is erasing a part of losses vs. euro recorded yesterday and is dealing at 1.2150. The dollar vs. rouble is dealing at 74.30. The crude oil is declining a bit below 63 $/b on the WTI. OPEC+ could decide to ease production quotas at next meeting following the surge in prices.
Disappointing weekly export sales in the US have pushed prices to retreat significantly yesterday and funds took a part of their profits on long positions. Last week, 238 700 t of soybean, 599 100 t of corn and 182 600 t of wheat have been shipped. The export activity is therefore reducing but a confirmation of these figures will be needed next week to conclude to a lasting slowdown of the world demand.
On a weather point of view, few changes. Rainfalls are still delaying soybean harvest works in Brazil. However, production estimates remain around 133 Mt.
This morning, in preopening, the market is losing ground again. More profit takings should occur before the weekend.
Yesterday, funds were net sellers in 11 000 lots of corn, 15 000 lots of soybean and 5 500 lots of wheat.
Black Sea market
Until yesterday, Ukraine has shipped 31.7 Mt of cereals from the start of the season. This is 7.8 Mt less than last year to date. So far, 13.6 Mt of wheat (-2.7 Mt), 4 Mt of barley (-0.03 Mt) and 13.6 Mt of corn (-5 Mt) have been exported.
On a monthly basis, wheat exports are stable and corn sales have gained a slight momentum. Barley supplies are now exhausted.