European market
Traders naturally remain very attentive to developments in the Middle East, in a context of renewed firmness in oil prices. These have now returned to levels comparable to those of January 2025. In New York, WTI is now flirting with 80 $/barrel, while Brent in London is approaching 85 $/barrel. Traffic remains halted to this day in the Strait of Hormuz, blocking the region’s maritime flows. Farmers are naturally concerned about the evolution of fertilizer prices. Meanwhile, the euro/dollar parity has seen strong fluctuations since the start of the week but is nonetheless attempting to stabilise around 1.1600. The euro is thus returning to its lowest level against the dollar in four months, allowing European agricultural commodity prices to adjust upward.
Wheat prices on Euronext rose yesterday, though not enough to offset the previous day’s decline on the May 2026 contract. Prices are also progressing on the new crop, with the Dec 2025 contract returning to its highest levels since last May. Despite the recent price movement, market participants remain cautious given the specific fundamentals of the grain markets and the stock situation. The USDA’s monthly report, due next week, should reinforce this prudence.
For the new crop, in Canada, StatsCan released its spring planting intentions yesterday. Compared with last year, the figures highlight a –2.4 % decrease in durum wheat area and a slight –0.1 % reduction in spring wheat acreage. In contrast, barley and canola plantings are expected to increase by +5 % and +1 %, respectively, linked to prices viewed as more attractive than those of other crops. This announcement did not impact rapeseed prices on Euronext, which rose yesterday, supported by firm canola oil prices. The May 2026 contract has moved back above the 500 €/t threshold and is thus gradually filling the gap between 500.25 and 509 €/t opened last June.
American market
The situation in the Middle East continues to reinforce the firm tone in oil and energy‑related product prices. Ethanol prices in Chicago are thus marking new highs. Soybean oil in Chicago is also chaining sessions of gains, now trading above 65 c$/lb on the May 2026 contract. This supports soybean prices, which closed yesterday’s session at a new settlement high for the May 2026 contract, just below 11.80 $/bu. This morning, trading is even taking place above that level, returning to the highs recorded at the start of the week.
Supported by excellent weekly export sales figures in corn, with more than 2 mn t sold for the current campaign, prices in Chicago posted a sharp rebound. In a single session, also helped by funds repositioning on the buy side, the downward movement observed since the start of the week was erased. The May 2026 contract is thus approaching its highest level since January, trading around 4.55 $/bu. Although still far from the planting period, the currently dry conditions in corn‑producing areas are also adding some uncertainty regarding water reserves for the new crop.
In wheat, prices also moved higher, rebounding on technical levels after the declines of recent days. The May 2026 contract has thus moved back above 5.80 $/bu. Weekly export sales activity stands at 203 100 t; although at the lower end of expectations, it did not weigh on the rebound, which is following the dynamics of US corn.
Black Sea market
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