European market
The markets are digesting the various reports published in recent days, forcing traders to adjust their positions. Thus, wheat and corn on Euronext managed to close above their support levels at €190/t and €185/t respectively.
The ample supply on the international scene is currently holding back any radical change in dynamics, especially since conditions remain optimal in the Southern Hemisphere. The next few weeks will confirm the potential currently considered excellent, with an Australia that could once again outperform this year.
On the demand side, discussions around the Pakistani situation are animating classes at the beginning of the week. The floods affecting the wheat storage areas raise concerns about possible volume losses on the territory. If this is confirmed, the state office could return to the market, which would stimulate demand.
On the international level, competition remains strong between the various operators, and currencies remain a key indicator of competitiveness. With a euro/dollar parity exceeding 1.17, European origins suffer. However, the ruble fluctuations could lead to the reintroduction of export taxes in Russia. Announced around $6/t, these taxes could offer a respite to other origins.
As for oilseeds, they remain waiting for the reopening of the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange, after the MPOB highlighted the scale of palm oil stocks in Malaysia last week. For its part, canola suffers from a dynamic export penalized by the persistent diplomatic tensions with China.
American market
The US markets remain dynamic, driven by a sustained flow of information. After the adjustments following the USDA report, attention is now turning to the plains, where the first echoes of corn and soybean yields are beginning to emerge. After the surprise increase in areas, the 2025 production promises to be colossal in the United States, but already integrated by the markets. However, the relatively dry end of the cycle in some areas could prompt the USDA to revise down its yield estimates, especially since only 7% of the corn has been harvested to date. Note that this rate amounts to 5% for soybeans and 94% for spring wheat.
On the trade side, the export inspections confirm a good dynamic at the beginning of the campaign. The volumes inspected are as follows:
Wheat: 755,000 t, above expectations
Corn: 1.51 Mt, above expectations
Soybeans: 804,000 t, also above expectations.
On the soybean market, operators are struggling to take a clear position. At issue: ongoing diplomatic exchanges between the Chinese and American authorities, currently meeting in Spain, while the American president announced a meeting with his Chinese counterpart at the end of the week. A possible warming of diplomatic relations could reshuffle the maps of world flows, especially in soybeans.
In addition, the USDA reported at the beginning of the week an exceptional sale of 149,000 t of corn to an unknown destination.
Black Sea market
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