European market
Tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on the energy market, with oil prices in both New York and London reaching their highest levels since last summer. The grain market is observing this movement without taking part in it, as fundamental conditions differ greatly between products. However, the euro’s accelerated decline against the dollar requires an adjustment of European prices. The euro/dollar exchange rate is now moving below 1.1650, its lowest level since mid‑January.
After the previous day’s highs, Euronext prices retreated yesterday in wheat, corn and rapeseed. Approaching technical resistance zones is prompting some precautionary selling from operators. The May 2026 wheat contract has thus fallen back below the symbolic threshold of 200 €/t. Activity was strong on the Euronext wheat contract, with another consecutive session exceeding 100,000 lots traded across all maturities. Activity on the corn contract, although increasing, remains significantly lower, leading to a slower price adjustment between the two markets. Operators, particularly in the feed industry, also point out that the price spread between corn and wheat in the current marketing year has narrowed once again.
The rapeseed market also posted a decline, moving far from the firmness seen in canola prices in Winnipeg. Recently eased tensions over rights of customs between China and Canada, along with firm vegetable oil prices, appear to be stabilizing, reassuring Canadian operators. Today’s upcoming StatCan release will therefore be closely watched for adjustments to Canadian production figures.
American market
In Chicago, only soybean oil prices rose yesterday, in a market still closely watching the evolution of crude oil prices amid the situation in the Middle East. Soybean oil prices for the May 2026 contract are trading at new highs, closing yesterday’s session above 63.50 c$/lb and this morning moving back near their contract high, above 64 c$/lb. Meanwhile, meal prices are losing momentum and have fallen back below 310 $/short ton for the May 2026 contract, returning to last week’s lows. The rise in oil prices is nevertheless supporting soybean prices which, although closing lower yesterday compared to the previous day, are still trading near 11.70 $/bu on the May 2026 contract. U.S. exporters remain cautious as South American origins increasingly arrive on the market, with loading activity picking up from Brazil.
Corn prices, despite new exceptional sales of 125 000 t reported yesterday by USDA to an unspecified destination, moved lower. The May 2026 contract thus closed below 4.45 $/bu. Prices returning to levels similar to those seen in early January prompted some selling repositioning from U.S. farmers.
In wheat, prices also retreated, falling back below 5.70 $/bu at yesterday’s close for the May 2026 contract. The recent upward movement is likewise encouraging producers to make some price fixations. For new crop, the rains observed and the forecasts announced are reassuring regarding the condition of winter crops.
Black Sea market
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