European market

European grains began the week at two speeds. Euronext had to wait for US prices to open to start rising again. Financial operators saw the weather risk tightening across the globe, leading to massive buybacks of positions. The last time European grains closed at such high levels was in September 2023.  
The water deficit in Russia has given way to several frosts over the past few days, fuelling traders' fears. The opposite is true of Western Europe, where rain is still forecast in many regions. This return of the weather market is disrupting the markets, creating anxiety on the international scene. There are also geopolitical considerations, as Israel's refusal to agree to a ceasefire is once again fuelling the tensions.
Rapeseed has returned to the symbolic 480 €/t level for August 2024, the first time this has happened in 8 months, in a still tense environment for oilseed. With the European flowering season under discussion, Canadian volumes increasingly focused on the domestic market, and uncertainties over Ukrainian production, we will have to rely on Australia to ease the balance sheet. But the west of the country, the main rapeseed-growing area, is marked by a water deficit.

American market

The buying up of positions by financial operators amid weather risks pushed US prices higher. The risks are affecting Europe as well as Russia, the United States, Brazil and Argentina. 
This is particularly the case for corn, where there are still big differences in production estimates between private analysts in South America and the USDA. With the USDA due to publish a new report this Friday, many adjustments are expected. While expectations are for 52.14mn t of corn production in Argentina and 122.4mn t in Brazil, the balance sheet for this region is likely to be down by more than 4mn t on last month, which is still insufficient according to local producers.
To complete the picture and accelerate the rise, we had to wait for the publication of the progress of US sowings. The corn planting rate was 36%, 9 points higher than last week, when traders were expecting 39%. Although this is only 3 points behind expectations and last year, the rain forecast for the Corn Belt is not likely to reassure producers. In soybeans, 25% of the area has been sown, compared with 28% expected. For spring wheat, the increase is 2 points higher than expected, with 47% sown. Lastly, winter wheat crop conditions have improved by one point to 50% good to excellent.

Black Sea market

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