Analysis 04/05/2020

European market

Following a long weekend, as most of European markets were closed, the week should begin in negative territory to reflect the drop of US prices in preopening and the consequence of beneficial rains in production areas.

Good precipitations are coming a bit late, but they will relief the hydric stress of winter crops and facilitate the quick growth of spring crops.

In France, the winter barley is at heading stage and winter wheat is showing that heading stage is already in progress. These crops are well ahead of vegetative development compared to normal.

On the international stage, USA sold 264 000 t of soybean to China.

Last Thursday, FranceAgrimer cut its weekly wheat, winter and spring  barley crop ratings to respectively 57% (-1), 53% (-4) and 65% (-4) of good to excellent. The body estimates that corn is now seeded up to 70%.

Crude oil prices are declining slightly this morning to deal at 19 $/b. The euro remains steady vs dollar at 1.0940.

Palm prices are losing ground this morning in Kuala Lumpur, renewed tensions between USA and China are weighing on markets. This could add some pressure to rapeseed prices today.

American market

US markets finished the week down, especially in wheat and soybean, and the beginning of this week should be negative again.

Fears to see a trade war reignited between USA and China is raising concerns. Indeed, the US is blaming China for he spreading of the coronavirus.

The return of rains in Europe and good conditions for US corn plantings’ progression are also weighing on prices.

In Argentina, soybean harvests are gaining momentum and were achieved up to 68% on last Friday.

Weekly ethanol stocks have dropped for the first time in five weeks as the production continues to fall.

Friday, funds were net sellers in 3 500 lots of corn, 4 000 lots of soybean and 5 000 lots of wheat.

Black Sea market

New rains have been recorded during the weekend in Black Sea. During last seven days, the cumulative rainfall reached 50mm in the centre regions of both Ukraine and Russia. However, in a third of the southeast of Ukraine and in Kuban (Russia), dryness is persisting, scarce precipitations have not improved a critical situation. At last, these regions should receive rains during the week. This wetter weather is positive for spring crops but it will not relief winter crops close to the north of Black Sea where the damage is now irreversible.