Analysis 15/04/2020

European market

The prices decreased for all products yesterday, in the context of a heavy situation for economic indicators, a consequence of the health crisis and the confinement of half the population of the world. This situation and the economic consequences are unprecedented, apart from periods of war.

Wheat prices marked a decrease with the meteorological forecasts showing beneficial rains for the Black Sea area. Even if the precipitations there are not very abundant, they nevertheless should relieve the situation of water deficit. In France, demand is becoming scarce on the domestic market, only deliveries to port areas remain strong.

On the international scene, Egypt purchased 120,000 t of wheat from Russia, including 60,000 tonnes for May 15/25 delivery and 60,000 t for May 26/June 5 delivery. In order to secure its domestic needs, the Egyptian government has decided to import 800,000 t of wheat during its harvest period, which is not usual. This illustrates fears of soaring food prices among the major importing countries.

As of April 12, the EU exported 26.71 Mt of wheat, which is up vs 15.86 Mt of last year. In details, 5.95 Mt of barley were exported compared to 3.65 Mt last year. In corn, 16.3 Mt have been imported to date, compared with 19.32 Mt last year to date.

Rapeseed prices retreated yesterday in the wake of crude oil and soybeans. The soybean exports to China remain below market expectations and USDA target. The palm prices marked a slight rebound opening this morning, but the market is still depressed.

Crude oil prices are displayed this morning at 20.60 $/b and the euro remains stable at 1.0980 against the dollar.

 

American market

Prices fell yesterday in Chicago, in all products, in the context of general depression, with the exception of the stock markets which are already in anticipation of the post-crisis.

Wheat prices fell despite fears of wheat damage especially in Texas and Oklahoma due to frosts from -4 to -7 degrees.

Corn remains penalized by an ethanol sector in the midst of a crisis.

As for soybeans, Chinese demand is below expectations, with Brazilian offers remaining more competitive, especially at this time of the start of the campaign for the South American continent.

The funds were net sellers yesterday for 11,000 lots of corn, 5,000 lots of soybeans and 4,000 lots of wheat.

Black Sea market

The rains that fell yesterday on the Black Sea region remain insufficient. Firstly, they covered for the moment only northern Ukraine and central Russia. Also, they were insufficient in terms of quantity, hardly exceeding 10mm.
A new depression is expected for the weekend in southern Russia, southern Ukraine and in the Romanian plains. It should be important to monitor the changing weather conditions in the Black Sea.