European market
French wheat reaffirmed its competitiveness yesterday, with 60 000 t sold to Egypt, the only offer retained during its call for tender. No doubt a new tender will be programmed very quickly. French wheat was purchased at a price of 219.40 $/CIF, a result of 199.15 $ FOB Dunkerque and 20.25 $ for transportation. The best next offer was Russian, proposed at a price of 219.50 $/CIF (203.50 $/FOB and 16 $ of transport). The French competitiveness should be maintained if the total export target posted by Agritel's analysts at 20 Mt for the entire campaign, including intra-Community, must be achieved.
Yesterday, the major element was the sharp decline in the stock markets, since the CAC 40 dropped yesterday by -3.12% and the Footsie (London) by -3.23%. The US stock markets also fell with respectively -1.80% and -1.60% for the Dow Jones and NASDAQ. Markets are worried about Brexit and a global economic slowdown.
On the international scene, there will be a new sale of 464 000 t of soybeans to China, which is added to 600,000 tons already contracted at the beginning of the week. Since September 1, China has bought 2.1 Mt of American soybeans.
The corn and rapeseed prices did not change much. Rapeseed remains shared between the news about the difficulties of canola harvests in Canada and yesterday’s profit-taking on soybeans. The palm prices remain slightly depressed, despite a certain revival of the export activity from Malaysia to Asia.
American market
Yesterday the American markets marked a decrease for all products, in a context of great uncertainties on global economic growth. Moreover, the corn prices dropped on chartist considerations after closing a gap.
US wheats are uncompetitive on the international scene, particularly because of the dollar's strength against other currencies. Soybeans have some support in recent sales to China, thanks to a quota with reduced duties.
In corn, there is a contradiction between US analysts' product estimates and farmers’ feedback, confirming lower yields than those reported last month by the USDA.
The funds were net sellers yesterday for 11,000 lots of corn, 7,000 lots of soybeans and 5,000 lots of wheat.
Black Sea market
The Russian Grain Quality Control Center has released new figures for the current harvest. As of September 30, 38.9% of the volume of harvested wheat (total 71.3 Mt) has been controlled in 48 regions of Russia. The total share of milling wheat is currently estimated at 78.6% and significantly exceeds the volume of 2018 (69.6%).
The Prime Minister said on October 2 that Russia will be able to fully support the needs of the population. Figures released on October 1 confirm his words. Indeed, 110.6 Mt of cereals were harvested (100.4 Mt in 2018) with an average yield of 2.69 t/ha vs 2.58 t/ha in 2018. Although the harvest is not completed, everything suggests that this year's harvest will be better than last year.