European market
Last week the wheat prices managed to hold on the support zone of €220/t on Euronext's March 2025 contract. yesterday, the wheat marked a new increase of + 3 € /t to come back just above 230 € /t in closing.
The EU wheat market is supported by the funds' positions buying back and by the few deals recently carried out by French wheat to Morocco and sub-Saharan Africa. The weakening euro/dollar close to 1.0500 is also helping the EU origin for export.
The escalation of tensions in Ukraine is gradually reviving the geopolitical risk premium. However, the market reaction remains tempered by the absence of immediate disruption to grain exports. The loads have been dynamic since the beginning of the campaign both in Russia and in Ukraine.
Market is also attentive to the Southern Hemisphere harvests which are progressing in Argentina and Australia amid the favourable weather windows.
Yesterday was marked by the correction of rapeseed, after liquidations of fund positions on Euronext and decline in vegetable oils market. After the unsuccessful test of €545/t at the beginning of the week, the rapeseed market fell by -9.25 €/t to 531.50 €/t on the February 2025 contract of Euronext. Palm oil in Kuala Lumpur and soybean oil in Chicago, drivers of the increase in recent weeks, correct by -10% and -11% respectively compared to recent highs. They cause the entire oilseed complex to decline.
American market
The US corn market remains supported by a dynamic export, with weekly sales expected today between 1mn t and 2.2mn t. Despite the recent arrival of the harvests, the prices are well supported also amid strong local consumption, with ethanol production close to records, above 1,100 barrels /day for 3 weeks.
Meanwhile, wheat is finding support in Chicago due to the renewed tensions in the Black Sea region.
On the other hand, soybeans fell yesterday under the downward influence of vegetable oils. However, Chinese purchases of US soybeans increased for the seventh consecutive month in October. New exceptional sales of US soybeans were also announced yesterday, amounting to 202,000 t to China and 226,200 t to an undisclosed destination. China is trying to secure volumes in the run-up to the inauguration of Donald Trump as US President and in the face of the many uncertainties surrounding the commercial policy from 2025.
Relations between China and Brazil are once again strengthening. After corn and soybeans in recent years, the Chinese government now allows sorghum imports from Brazil.
Black Sea market
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