European market
The reopening of the Euronext market on Friday showed moderate activity in a physical market that was almost non-existent at the end of the year. Transactions on the wheat futures contract, however, exceeded 25,000 lots. In corn, the activity was limited to 1156 lots. On the rapeseed futures contract, where the daily amplitude of price variation was once again significant, transactions reached 20,777 lots on Friday. For the reopening of the market, some trades were also observed on option contracts. Activity over the coming week will, like last week, be truncated by the early closing of the session tomorrow, December 31 and the public holiday of Wednesday, January 1.
Grain prices rose slightly, adjusting after several days of closure. The result of the latest Algerian tender is now integrated by the operators present. In Western Europe, price competition from the Black Sea remains the key factor to monitor in the second half of the season in an attempt to boost export loading activity.
Despite a period that is often not very active, there was a wide range of price variations on the rapeseed market on Friday. Friday's session thus erased the upward movement in rapeseed prices observed at the beginning of the week. After the high of €550/t during last Tuesday's shortened session, prices fell to a low of €514.25/t on Friday and finally closed the day at €518.25/t for the March 2025 expiration. The narrowness of the European market at this time of year thus leads to significant variations in a context where oilseed prices are currently evolving in a heterogeneous way on the various international markets, with an increase in the prices of palm oil in Malaysia and canola in Canada.
American market
Friday's session saw a further increase in grain prices. However, wheat prices rose more than corn, where the rise in prices was shy. The good weekly export sales figures provided support for prices as the last sessions of 2024 approached. The coming week will also be short because, like last week, January 1st, a new consecutive Wednesday holiday. The USDA reported on Friday a weekly new export sales volume of 612,400 t of wheat and 1,711,300 t of corn, two figures above the consensus of traders.
However, corn prices showed a limited increase compared to the previous session. Despite this, the March 2025 expiry is once again at a new 6-month high, now flirting with the $4.55/bu threshold. The weather conditions in Argentina are being observed with the utmost interest due to the current warm conditions and in anticipation of the arrival of new precipitation. The work of the Argentine corn planting, although still late compared to last season, is now more than 80% completed according to the Buenos Aires stock exchange with areas revalued upwards, which would reach 18.4 mn ha. The current state of corn crops, at the beginning of the production cycle, is still very satisfactory for the time being.
Soybean prices fell slightly on Friday, pushing the March 2025 expiry below the $9.90/bu level. The weekly export sales figure for soybeans was somewhat disappointing, falling below expectations at 978,400 t. Developments in production prospects in South America are still a key factor to monitor. In Brazil, the USDA's local attaché reports a new upward revision of planted areas of 47 mn ha compared to 45.8 mn ha last year. In Argentina, where soybean acreage is also increasing compared to last year. Soybean sowing work is progressing, supported by the Buenos Aires stock exchange, which announces that 84.6% of the soybean sowing has been completed and that the state of the crops is still very satisfactory.
