European market
The end of the year shows some price adjustments, including a slight increase in grain prices. European market participants are following the evolution of Black Sea wheat prices. At the beginning of the year, the situation will be particularly interesting to follow in Russia after the recent decline of the ruble against the dollar.
The wheat market on Euronext rose yesterday on futures contracts, closing above €234/t for the March 2025 deadline, its highest level since October 24. The volumes traded on Euronext in wheat, all maturities combined, reached 43,361 lots yesterday, a very respectable level at this time of year. The last day of the year, on December 31, is expected to be less active due to a shortened session on Euronext with a close scheduled for 2 p.m. In corn, where activity remains limited at present, prices have also risen supported by the rise in wheat prices.
The rapeseed market, on the other hand, posted a further decline on Euronext, with a trading volume of more than 22,000 lots. Prices fell in the wake of palm oil and canola prices, which were also down yesterday. In this movement, the price differential between the February 2025 and March 2025 expiry is falling again.
American market
At the end of the year, activity is showing a decline with less active funds and less present operators. However, corn prices, which had been rising for 6 consecutive sessions, fell yesterday. The session was punctuated by a new high since June 26 for the March 2025 contract, with corn trading above $4.58/bu, but the return to this level favored the return of sellers. The impact of warm temperatures in Argentina in the absence of new rains has driven the recent upward trend and remains an element to be monitored while waiting for the arrival of new rains. The beginning of 2025 will therefore unsurprisingly be animated by the evolution of weather conditions in this area where sowing is still to be finalized.
The soybean market also rose during the session yesterday, stealthily exceeding the $10/bu level for the March 2025 contract, before finally retreating at the end of the session and closing slightly higher than the previous day. The rebound in prices, which began on December 19, has led soybean prices to return to levels similar to the beginning of December above $9.90/bu. In oilmeals, on the March 2025 deadline, the movement was similar with prices testing the resistance zone of €315/short ton during the session before retreating afterwards and only posting a timid daily increase. Only soybean oil saw a sharper increase yesterday, driven by the USDA's announcement of an exceptional sale of 23,000 t of US soybean oil to India.
Wheat prices also rose in a limited way yesterday, despite a rebound during the session above $4.54/bu. Operators will now be increasingly vigilant about the evolution of winter crop conditions in the northern hemisphere.
The Chicago market will reopen on Thursday, January 2, 2025, after a full session on this last day of 2024.
