European market
The grain market posted a slight decline on Tuesday, in a context where many operators are absent at the end of the year. Activity on Euronext was limited on Tuesday during a shortened session. Despite this, some countries are taking advantage of this period to launch calls for tenders, such as Algeria, which finalised its purchases on Tuesday (December 24th) for undisclosed volumes of soft wheat for shipments announced for the months of February and March. The decline of the euro against the dollar, whose trade is trading at around 1.04, does not seem to have favoured the origins of Western Europe over the many origins of the Black Sea.
On the other hand, a clear rebound was made on Tuesday in rapeseed, showing a sharp increase in the next maturities. In a narrow market, where less than 7000 lots were traded on Tuesday, prices showed a wide range of variations. The February 2025 maturity returned during the session to the level of €550/t, close to its recent highs, to finally close the day below €535/t. An upward movement was also observed in Canada in the canola market, which also returned to test areas of resistance.
On Boxing Day, when several financial markets are closed, the Euronext market will also be closed. The reopening is scheduled for tomorrow, Friday 27 December.
American market
In this week of trading shortened by the Christmas holidays, the US market remains the most active by reopening today. The last session before Christmas showed a further decline in wheat prices. The Mars 2025 contract is still trading below $5.40/bu, which is still close to its all-time low traded. The strength of the dollar, less than a month before the inauguration of the new American president, remains a factor of pressure on wheat prices, which are mechanically adjusting in order to remain attractive in the face of the arrival of new harvests from the southern hemisphere on the international scene.
In corn, the situation is stabilizing at levels close to the highs of the autumn with, for the March 2025 expiration, prices that closed above $4.48/bu on Tuesday. Export activity has been strong for several weeks. The new export sales figures will be released this Friday by the USDA due to Wednesday's public holiday. At this time of year, when many operators are less present, the evolution of South American weather conditions, particularly in Argentina, remains a factor to be monitored. Faced with high temperatures, the announcements of new rains next week will indeed be welcome in Argentina.
The soybean complex shows very heterogeneous movements depending on the product. Thus, soybean oil is trading slightly lower in Chicago, thus evolving in a narrow range for a week. Meal prices, which strengthened at the beginning of the week, are still above $300/short ton for the March 2025 expiration. Soybeans, on the other hand, on the March 2025 maturity, have not managed to rise above $9.85/bu.
