European market
FranceAgriMer yesterday published its new balance sheet estimates for the 2023/2024 marketing year. Soft wheat stocks at the end of June 2024 are forecast to rise to 3.9 Mt. This increase is justified by the downturn in domestic consumption in favour of starch and animal feed outlets. Barley and corn stocks, on the other hand, are forecast to be slightly lower than last month's estimate, even though the volume is still well above that of the previous marketing year. FranceAgriMer has forecast carryover stocks for the 2023/2024 season at 1.57 million tons for barley and 2.27 million tons for corn.
On Euronext, prices fluctuated widely once again, ending the day lower for wheat. Between the highest and lowest prices traded, the December 2024 maturity fluctuated by €8.50/t, closing close to the session lows and above the €248/t level. The weather situation in Europe and Russia continues to drive the market in the new campaign. In view of recent revisions to production potential and firmer prices, sowings in the southern hemisphere will also be closely watched. In Argentina, the government is expecting wheat acreage to rise to 6.15 million hectares for the coming season.
In corn, the June 2024 maturity, which returned to its highest level since last October during the session, finally rose very slightly at the end of the day. After the recent highs at the start of the week, new-crop corn prices are now back below €220/t. Oilseed prices also followed this trend after the recent rebound, posting a slight fall yesterday.
American market
The Chicago wheat market fell for the third consecutive session yesterday. The decline wiped out the upward movement seen at the start of the week. Despite this, prices remain extremely volatile. Daily variations are currently justified by updates to weather models, due to questions about the evolution of conditions in Russia and also on the American plains. As for the wheat situation in Kansas, this week's crop tour by the Wheat Quality Council is reassuring, with yield potential confirmed to be better than last year, with an expected yield of 46.5 bu/acre at present. This estimate is higher than the average for recent years at the time of the crop tours and higher than the USDA's current production assumption for the state of Kansas.
On the export front, weekly new-crop wheat sales came in at 304,300 t, which was disappointing compared to expectations. Corn sales volumes for crop year 23 came in at 742,200 t and 128,200 t for new crop, again at the lower end of traders' expectations. Corn prices fell back to below $4.60/bu for July 2024. Weekly soybean export sales were also disappointing.
For both corn and soybean, the progress of planting in the USA remains to be seen.
